[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry, at 13/0900 UTC, is centered near 29.1N
91.8W, or about 50 nm SW of Morgan City Louisiana, and about 25
nm S of Marsh Island in Vermilion Bay. The central pressure is 993
mb and maximum sustained winds are 55 kt gusting to 65 kt. Barry
is moving to the WNW at 4 kt. Numerous strong convection is within
180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate with
scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant and 240 nm in the southern semicircle. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 23N-30N between 88W-96W. The
ASCAT pass from late Friday evening and recent surface data
indicate that the strongest winds are to the E and SE of the
center. See hurricanes.gov to view the latest Public Advisory and
Forecast Advisory for T.S. Barry.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 05N-16N, moving
W around 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is along and east of the wave axis from 04N-11N between the coast
of Africa and the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 03N-17N, moving
W around 15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis
near 10N42W. Scattered moderate showers are from 06N-12N between
35W-46W. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone
development during the next couple of days as it continues
westward.

A eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 04N-17N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are within
150 nm W and 240 nm E of the wave axis

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74/75W from 05N-
17N, moving W around 20 kt. At this time, no significant
convection is seen near this wave due to dry air and subsidence,
except south of 10N along the East Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal areas of southwestern
Senegal near 12N17W to 09N24W to 10N30W. The ITCZ begins near
10N30W to 10N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N44W
to 04N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered showers are from 08N-10N between 29W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S. Barry is over the north central Gulf of Mexico. See the
Special Features section above for details.

Isolated showers are over north Florida as well as the Yucatan
Channel and the Bay of Campeche. In the upper levels, the upper
level high centered over the Houston Texas area is starting to
weaken. This could mean that northerly wind shear over T.S. Barry
is abating, which may allow Barry to strengthen a little before
the center makes landfall today.

Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to move inland along the mid-
Louisiana coast around midday today in the vicinity of the western
portion of Vermilion Bay to the south of Lafayette, and it could
be a 65 kt category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches the coast.
Barry will then move slowly northward and farther inland while
weakening. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to continue
over the Gulf waters near the Louisiana coast until early Sunday
morning. Winds over the far northern Gulf are then forecast to
diminish to below 25 kt by late Sunday evening. Seas in excess of
20 ft now just off the Louisiana coast will subside to below 10 ft
by sunrise Sunday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean Sea. Another tropical
wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. In addition,
scattered showers and tstorms are south of Cuba from 18N-21N
between 74W-83W. Subsidence is over much of the central
Caribbean.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
over the S central Caribbean for the entire period. Winds will be
fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical
wave near 74/75W will reach the western Caribbean Sun. Another
tropical wave along 63W will reach the central Caribbean Sun, then
reach the western Caribbean Tue. Yet another tropical wave will
reach the tropical N Atlantic early next week, then the eastern
Caribbean by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and tstorms are moving NE well offshore northern
Florida and Georgia, north of 29N between 76W-79W. A 1019 mb high
is near 28N70W. A 1017 mb low near 28N64W is along a trough from
29N42W to 26N62W, with scattered showers and tstorms near it. A
stationary front enters the area near 32N51W to 29N55W,
dissipating to 28N57W, continuing as a sfc trough to 26N59W.
Scattered showers are along and within 60 nm SE of the weakening
stationary front and trough. Surface ridging covers the eastern
Atlantic.

The trough near 64W will move westward across the waters S of 27N
through early Tue when it will reach the Florida Peninsula.
Otherwise, high pres will dominate the region through the middle
of next week, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes,
except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse
during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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