[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0519 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry at 11/0300 UTC, is centered in the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 27.9N 89.4W with a central pressure of
1001 and is moving W at 03 kt. This position is about 140 nm SE
of Morgan City, Louisiana. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
43 knots with gusts to 53 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 300 nm to the W of T.S. Barry. Scattered
moderate convection is within 240 nm of the SE quadrant of T.S
Barry. See the latest Public Advisories for Barry via the WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for Barry are available under the WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. See www.hurricanes.gov
for more details also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W south of 15N, moving
W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure along the wave axis near
08N34W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between
31W-39W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 150 nm of the
wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W south of 14N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this
wave from 09N-14N between 52W-60W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 15N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. At this time, no significant convection is
seen near this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W south of 16N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 100
nm E of the wave axis mostly from 09N-14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N26W. The ITCZ continues from 09N26W to
09N32W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N36W to 10N55W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate convection is along the West African coast
from 04N- 12N between 11W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for more information on T.S.
Barry.

Scattered moderate convection continues off the coast of Florida
and the SE Gulf, from 23N-27N between 80W-83W. Scattered moderate
convection is also moving off the Yucatan into the Bay of
Campeche, S of 20N and E of 92W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh southerly winds in the eastern Gulf with some
strong winds closer to the center of T.S. Barry and light to
gentle WSW winds in the western Gulf.

Barry will move to 28.0N 89.9W Friday morning, 28.5N 90.7W Fri
evening, 29.5N 91.5W Saturday morning, strengthen to a hurricane
Saturday then move inland near 30.5N 91.9W by Saturday afternoon.
Winds and seas diminish thereafter across the basin Sunday and
Monday.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continues across the coast of Haiti
in the Mona Passage, otherwise most of the significant convection
has dissipated. Scattered low-topped showers are seen moving
across the eastern Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands.
Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the central Caribbean with
some strong winds. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the rest
of the basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
tropical wave near 82W will exit the western Caribbean early
Friday. Another tropical wave near 64W will reach the central
Caribbean Saturday and enter the western Caribbean late Sunday. A
third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Friday night
and cross the central Caribbean Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered thunderstorms are seen across the Florida Straits and
the western Atlantic, from 23N-31N between 76W-81W. A frontal
boundary enters the waters in the central Atlantic near 31N53W to
28N59W to 31N67W. Showers are seen moving along and within 100 nm
of this boundary. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1020 mb high near 27N69W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate southeasterly winds are seen in the western
Atlantic N of 30N and W of 78W. Fresh to strong trades are also
pulsing north of Hispaniola.

High pressure will dominate the region through early next week,
generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except north of
Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the
evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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