[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry, at 12/0900 UTC, is centered in the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 28.1N 90.2W with a central pressure
of 1000 and moving WNW at 04 kt. This position is about 111 nm
SSE of Morgan City, Louisiana. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 43 knots with gusts to 53 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 250 nm of T.S. Barry in the SW and SE
quadrant. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen
within 120 nm of T.S. Barry in the NE quadrant. See the latest
Public Advisories for Barry via the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for Barry are
available under the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2. See www.hurricanes.gov for more details also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W south of 15N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure along the wave axis near
08N36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between
35W- 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is seen from 15N54W to 06N58W,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near
this wave from 09N- 14N between 53W-61W. There are also
thunderstorms along the wave axis in Guyana.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W south of 16N,
moving W at 15 kt. At this time, no significant convection is
seen near this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W south of 16N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm
E of the wave axis mostly from 11N-13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 10N26W. The ITCZ continues from 10N26W to
08N35W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N37W to
06N45W to 09N56W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is seen along
the monsoon trough off the West African coast, from 05N- 12N
between 12W- 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features Section for more information on T.S.
Barry.

Scattered showers continue off the coast of Florida and the SE
Gulf, from 24N-29N between 81W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are
seen within 200 nm of the Mexican coast from 22N-24N.
Winds are moderate to strong southerly winds in northern half of
the Gulf, with strong gales toward the center of T.S. Barry. Light
winds are in the southern Gulf.

Tropical Storm Barry will move to 28.4N 90.7W this afternoon,
29.1N 91.4W Sat morning, inland to 30.0N 92.0W Sat afternoon,
inland to 31.5N 92.5W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical
depression near 32.5N 92.5W Mon morning. Barry will move to 34.0N
92.5W early Tuesday, and become a remnant low as it moves to
36.5N 91.0W Wednesday. Winds and seas diminish across the basin
Sunday into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered thunderstorms continue to move across the Mona Passage
toward NE Jamaica. Scattered low- topped showers are moving
across the eastern Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles.
Scattered moderate convection is seen in the far SW Caribbean,
enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough and tropical wave,
S of 12N between 76W-84W. Fresh to strong trades are seen in the
central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades across the rest
of the basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the S central Caribbean for the entire period, and
fresh to occasionally strong in the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical
wave near 82W/83W will exit the western Caribbean by the weekend.
Another tropical wave near 65W will reach the central Caribbean
Saturday and enter the western Caribbean late Sunday. A third
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean by the start of the
weekend and cross the central Caribbean Sunday and Monday,
reaching the western Caribbean Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is seen along the S Florida coast
from 24N-28N between 78W-81W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen
across the Bahamas and off the NE coast of Florida in the western
Atlantic, from 23N-31N between 75W-78W. A surface trough is along
the S Florida coast from 26N80W to 23N80W. Meanwhile, a cold
front enters the forecast waters near 31N52W to 27N59W to 29N64W.
The tail-end of the boundary then stalls from 29N64W to 31N67W. A
pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 27N56W to 24N62W. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms are along and within 50 nm of these
boundaries between 50W-65W. Another surface trough is seen in the
central Atlantic from 27N44W to 22N48W with no significant
convection associated with it. Surface ridging, anchored by a
1020 mb high near 27N69W, is seen across the rest of the basin.

A trough will move westward across the waters S of 27N Saturday
through early Tuesday when it will reach the Florida Peninsula.
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the region through early
next week, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N
of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the
evenings.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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