[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
728 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry at 11/2100 UTC, is centered in the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 27.8N 89.3W, moving W, or 275
degrees, at 04 knots. This position also is about 78 nm S of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and about 152 nm to the SE of
Morgan City Louisiana. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with
gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 300 nm of the W quadrant of T.S. Barry. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm of the E quadrant
of T.S Barry. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for Barry are available via
the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for Barry are available via the WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 02N-14N moving W
at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is embedded on the wave axis near
08N33W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
08N-11N between 32W-36W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within
180 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 14N52W to 06N57W
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 210 nm of the
wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W from 06N-14N
moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered showers are within 120 nm
of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 04N-17N
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 300
nm W of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 13N16W to 10N25W. The ITCZ continues from 10N25W to
09N31W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N35W to
06N43W to 09N54W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical
wave section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of
W Africa from 11N-15N between 12W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S Barry is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico. See
above. In addition to the convection associated with Barry,
scattered moderate convection is over Florida, the SE Gulf, and W
Cuba. In the upper levels, outside of T.S. Barry, an upper level
low is centered over NE Mexico near 25N98W. An upper level high is
centered over S Mississippi near 32N90W.

Expect Barry to move to 27.9N 89.8W early Fri morning, to 28.3N
90.5W Fri afternoon, to 29.0N 31.3W Friday night, and strengthen
to a hurricane Sat morning, then move inland near 30.0N 91.7W Sat
afternoon. Winds and seas diminish thereafter across the basin
Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. In
addition to the convection mentioned with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean W of 82W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is inland from the the
Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. Similar convection is over the SW
Caribbean W of 79W. In addition, scattered moderate convection is
over E Cuba. Outside of the tropical waves, 15-25 kt tradewinds
are over the central Caribbean with strongest winds along the
coast of N Colombia. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper
level high is centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N79W. A small
upper level low is centered over the Leeward Islands near 19N64W.

Expect the tropical waves to move W at 15-20 kt. Another tropical
wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Friday night and cross the
central Caribbean Sunday and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two well defined tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic.
See above. A 1019 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
27N67W. A cold front dips into the central Atlantic from 31N56W to
29N60W to 31N66W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the front. A large 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 37N28W.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure will dominate the region
through early next week, generally bringing gentle to moderate
breezes, except north of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades
will pulse during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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