[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm BARRY has developed in the north central Gulf of
Mexico. The center of Tropical Storm BARRY, at 11/1800 UTC, is
near 27.8N 89.0W, moving W, or 270 degrees, 04 knots. This
position also is about 80 nm/145 km to the S of the mouth of the
Mississippi River, and about 160 nm/300 km to the SE of Morgan
City in Louisiana. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with
gusts to 45 knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are
within 300 nm of the center of T.S. BARRY in the W quadrant.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers are within 400 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for BARRY are available via the WMO header
WTNT32 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for BARRY are available via the WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 14N
southward. A 1012 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave
near 08N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 11N between 30W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 14N52W 10N53W 07N54W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 13N51W
to 10N56W to 07N59W. Broken low level clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are from 17N southward between 60W and 70W. Some of
this precipitation, if not most of it, may not be related to the
tropical wave at all.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W from 14N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 07N to 11N between 48W and 53W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W from 18N
southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent. Broad cyclonic wind flow and inverted troughs from the
low levels to the upper levels cover the coastal areas from
Honduras to the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon
trough is along 07N/08N, from 75W in Colombia beyond 85W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the coast from Honduras
to Colombia between 77W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SW
Senegal/Guinea-Bissau to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from 10N22W
to 08N31W, 06N38W, and to 07N50W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 13N from 22W
eastward. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 13N
southward from 60W eastward, not counting any precipitation that
is related to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is NE Mexico near
25N98W. An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is on top of T.S. BARRY.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak, elsewhere, away
from T.S. BARRY.

Tropical Storm BARRY near 27.8N 88.7W 1005 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving W at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Barry will move to 27.8N 89.3W this evening, 28.1N 90.0W on
Friday morning, 28.6N 90.8W on Friday evening, strengthen to a
hurricane near 29.4N 91.4W on Saturday morning, and move inland
and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.0N 91.8W on Sunday
morning. The wind speeds and the sea heights diminish thereafter
across the basin, from Sunday night through Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the 24N77W Bahamas cyclonic
circulation center, toward Honduras. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow is within 120 nm on either side of the trough. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 15N northward from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N, from 75W in Colombia beyond
85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the coast from
Honduras to Colombia between 77W and 86W.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea during the
entire period. A tropical wave, that is near 80W, will exit the
western Caribbean Sea on Friday. A second tropical wave is in
the eastern Caribbean Sea now. The wave will cross the central
Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and enter the western Caribbean Sea
on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 32N41W cyclonic circulation
center, to 27N55W 24N60W, to a 24N77W cyclonic circulation
center that is near the Bahamas. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm on
either side of the trough. A cold front passes through 32N56W to
31N60W and 32N64W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 360 nm to the S and SE of the cold front
between 48W and 60W, and elsewhere N of 23N between 60W and 70W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N78W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
Atlantic Ocean from Cuba northward from 70W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 37N28W, through 32N33W, to a 1024 mb high pressure
center that is near 29N37W. The ridge continues from 29N37W, to
26N52W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 26N67W,
to 20N80W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure will dominate the region through Monday night.
Expect generally gentle to moderate breezes, except north of
Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the
evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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