[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is a 1010 mb low centered near
27.9N 87.8W as of 11/0000 UTC, or about 100 nm SE of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River, moving WSW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are near 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 270
nm in the southern semicircle and the NW quad. Scattered showers
and tstorms extend out to 300 nm in the NE quad. The convection is
being enhanced by upper-level diffluence, and the disturbance has
been becoming better organized overall during the last 6 hours.

A westward motion is expected through Friday followed by a turn
to the northwest early Saturday. The system is expected to
approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. The disturbance
is expected to become a tropical depression on Thursday and a
hurricane by late Friday. Peak seas are forecast to exceed to 20
ft by early Friday in the north-central Gulf off the Louisiana
coast. For more information on this developing tropical cyclone,
including information on the Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches
that are currently in effect for portions of the United States,
please visit hurricanes.gov to see the latest NHC public and
forecast advisory products.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave that was previously along
27/28W has split into two waves. The northern portion of the wave
moved faster to the west and is located along 32/33W from 06N-
17N. This wave is moving W around 20-25 kt. The southern portion
of the wave is along 27W from 02N-13N, and this wave is moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from
04N-11N between 25W-35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41/42W from 16N southward,
moving W around 20 kt. The wave is engulfed in dry Saharan air
north of 10N. Isolated showers are seen along the wave axis from
07N-10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52/53W from 13N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. A surface trough is analyzed
just east of this wave from 13N47W to 08N49W. Satellite imagery
shows a low cloud swirl along the trough. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are seen from 07N-12N between 49W-57W. The wave
will bring enhanced rainfall to the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands beginning early Friday. It will reach the central
Caribbean by late Saturday and Central America by early Monday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 17N southward,
moving W around 20-25 kt. No significant deep convective
precipitation is seen over water. However, scattered moderate
convection is over NW Venezuela and northern Colombia.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81/82W from 17N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen
within 120 nm of the wave axis and over eastern Honduras, eastern
Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SW
Senegal near 14N17W to 09N24W to 07N31W to 09N40W. The ITCZ is
from 08N44W to 07N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers and tstorms are
seen along and south of the monsoon trough from 06N-12N between
the coast of Africa and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is analyzed over the western Gulf near 25N95W.
Ridging from the high is producing mostly fair weather west of
93W. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two covers the northeastern Gulf,
with scattered showers and tstorms extending southward all the way
to the Yucatan Channel. See Special Features section above for
more information on this system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from central Cuba to northeastern
Nicaragua. This feature, along with two tropical waves over the
central and western Caribbean are enhancing scattered moderate
showers and tstorms north of 15N between 74W-82W. In the far SW
Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered
showers and tstorms south of 12N between 75W-84W. For more
information on convection related to the two tropical waves over
the basin, see the Tropical Waves section above. Drier air and
fair weather covers the eastern Caribbean east of 72W due to
Saharan air moving westward through the Caribbean.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
tropical wave near 82W will move into Central America tonight.
Another tropical wave near 74W will weaken as it moves into the
western Caribbean through the end of the week. A third tropical
wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early Fri, then cross the
central Caribbean Sat and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Features influencing the weather over the western Atlantic area
include an upper-level trough that extends from central Cuba to
the northwest and central Bahamas, an E-W stationary front that
extends from just N of Bermuda to the coast of South Carolina,
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two in the Gulf of Mexico near 28N87W,
and the subtropical high, which ridges westward from a 1024 mb
high near 26N56W. Much of the rain and thunderstorms associated
with the aforementioned features is occurring over Florida, the
southeast United States and Cuba. However, isolated showers and
tstorms are noted over the central and northwest Bahamas and east
of northern Florida. Scattered showers are also seen north of 30N
between 58W-82W south of the stationary front. Scattered showers
and tstorms are also seen from 25N-30N between 58W-64W. High
pressure ridging dominates the remainder of the basin. The high
pressure will dominate into the weekend, generally bringing gentle
to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh trades
will pulse during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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