[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is a 1009 mb low centered near
27.7N 88.0W as of 11/0300 UTC, or about 150 nm SE of New Orleans,
LA moving WSW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 26 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm in the
southern semicircle and the NW quad. Scattered showers and
thunderstormsextend out to 300 nm in the NE quad. The convection
is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence, and the disturbance
has been becoming better organized overall during the last 6
hours.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, becoming
a tropical depression early Thursday, a tropical storm by late
Thursday and a hurricane by late Friday. Expect this system to
move westward through Thursday, turning to north by Friday toward
the Louisiana coast. Peak seas are forecast to exceed to 20 ft by
early Friday in the north- central Gulf off the Louisiana coast.
For more information on this developing tropical cyclone,
including information on the Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches
that are currently in effect for portions of the United States,
please visit hurricanes.gov to see the latest NHC public and
forecast advisory products.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 13N southward,
moving W around 15-20 kt. There is a 1012 mb low along this wave
near 07N30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near
this feature from 04N-11N between 27W-34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 19N southward,
moving W around 15-20 kt. This wave is in dry Saharan air and no
significant convection associated with it at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 13N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. A surface trough is analyzed just east of
this wave from 13N49W to 08N51W. Satellite imagery shows a low
cloud swirl along the trough. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 08N- 12N between 50W- 57W. The wave will bring enhanced
rainfall to the Windward and southern Leeward Islands beginning
early Friday. It will reach the central Caribbean by late Saturday
and Central America by early Monday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 18N southward,
moving W around 15-20 kt. No significant deep convective
precipitation is seen over water. However, scattered moderate
convection is over northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SW
Senegal near 14N16W to 10N23W 07N39W. The ITCZ begins near 07N39W
and continues to 07N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in
the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen along and south of the monsoon trough from
07N- 12N between the coast of Africa and 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for more details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Weak ridging is seen across the western Gulf anchored by a 1014 mb
high near 27N94W. Fair weather prevails across this area.
Scattered moderate convection along the Mexican coast is beginning
to move into the southern Bay of Campeche, S of 19N. Scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle winds across the Gulf, with moderate
to fresh winds near Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from central Cuba to northeastern
Nicaragua. This feature, along with two tropical waves over the
central and western Caribbean are enhancing scattered moderate
convection near Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands, from 16N-
22N between 78W-84W. In the far SW Caribbean, the East Pacific
monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms
south of 13N between 75W- 84W. Drier air and fair weather covers
the eastern Caribbean east of 72W due to Saharan air moving
westward through the Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong trades north of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the rest of the
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate trades are seen across the rest of the basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
tropical wave near 75W will traverse the western Caribbean and
move into Central America by Friday. Another tropical wave will
enter the eastern Caribbean late Thursday into early Friday, then
move into the central Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered thunderstorms across the western Atlantic are seen from
24N-30N between 75W-80W due to an upper-level trough is extending
from central Cuba to the Bahamas and along with influence from
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a
front north of the forecast waters that is bringing convection
into the area from 27N-31N between 55W-65W. Surface ridging
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near
34N33W. The latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh
trades are pulsing north of Hispaniola.

High pressure will dominate into the weekend, generally bringing
gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh
trades will pulse during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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