[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The 1011 mb low pressure center, that has been the main feature
for NW Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico for the last 24 hours
to 48 hours, has been developing with time. The low pressure
center now is being considered as a Potential Tropical Cyclone.
The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO, at 10/1800 UTC, is
near 28.3N 86.7W, moving WSW or 240 degrees, 07 knots. This
position also is about 135 nm/250 km to the ESE of the mouth of
the Mississippi River. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1011 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with
gusts to 35 knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are
within 180 nm to 360 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant, within 90 nm of the center in the S quadrant, and
within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO are available via
the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
The FORECAST/ ADVISORIES for POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO are
available via the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 15N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 07N to 10N
between 26W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 16N
southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent. ITCZ precipitation is nearby.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 15N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 07N to 11N between 48W and 53W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 17N
southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 17N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 13N southward from 75W westward. Some of this precipitation
also is related to the monsoon trough, that is in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SW
Senegal near 13N17W, to 10N24W 07N30W 10N41W 08N45W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N45W to 05N48W, to 05N51W in the coastal waters
of NE French Guiana. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 480 nm to the S and SE of the monsoon
trough from 22W eastward, within 150 nm to the S of the monsoon
trough between 27W and 39W, and elsewhere from 09N southward
between 53W and 60W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere,
from 13N southward from 60W eastward, not counting any
precipitation that is related to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Texas, Mexico, and the
Gulf of Mexico from 20N northward from 93W westward. An upper
level ridge is along 90W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is
on top of Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak, elsewhere, away
from Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the 24N77W Bahamas cyclonic
circulation center, toward Honduras. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from the
Windward Passage westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 14N northward from 70W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, and
beyond 85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 13N southward
from 75W westward.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea during the
entire period. A tropical wave, that is near 80W, will weaken as
it moves westward into Central America this evening. A second
tropical wave, to the S of Hispaniola, also will weaken as it
moves into the western Caribbean Sea on Friday and Saturday.
A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Sea late
on Thursday or early on Friday, and then cross the central
Caribbean Sea on Saturday and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 32N41W cyclonic circulation
center, to 27N55W 24N60W, to a 24N77W cyclonic circulation
center that is near the Bahamas. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm on
either side of the trough. A cold front is along 33N65W to
33N69W. A stationary front continues from 33N69W to 34N76W, and
to the coastal border of South Carolina and Georgia. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 32N
northward from 55W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N33W, through 32N40W, to a 1024 mb high pressure
center that is near 27N56W, toward Andros Island in the Bahamas.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly wind flow will wind down
today, in the offshore waters that are adjacent to the NE part
of Florida, as the Gulf of Mexico low pressure center continues
to develop and move westward. High pressure, that is covering
the area, will support gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. An
exception will be for the area that is to the north of
Hispaniola, where fresh to locally strong trade winds will
pulse during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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