[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is
producing disorganized showers and has a medium chance of becoming
a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This disturbance is
expected to move southward or southwestward during the next day or
so, and a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Once the disturbance is
over water, conditions are expected to be conducive for development
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the
week while it progresses westward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later
this week. Additionally, strong to near gale force winds and
building seas are expected for the north-central and northwest
Gulf early Thursday through Saturday associated with this system.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving over West Africa with axis along 17W
south of 17N, moving W around 15-20 kt. Showers are noted from
05N- 11N between 13W- 18W.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends its axis along
30W south of 17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are
present south of 11N.

A tropical wave is along 41W south of 14N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen with this
wave mainly from 06N-11N between 39W-43W. In a few days,
convection will likely increase along the wave and showers with
gusty winds will be expected over the Windward Islands on Friday.
These conditions are expected to spread over the eastern
Caribbean through the weekend as the wave moves west.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 59W south of 15N, moving W
around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this
feature from 09N-14N between 56W-62W. An increase in shower
activity is expected over the east Caribbean with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 68W from
06N- 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The environment is fairly dry and
no significant convection is noted with this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 20N16W to 08N38W. The ITCZ begins near 07N42W to the coast of
French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection discussed in
the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted along
the monsoon trough from 04N-10N between 18W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the special features section for more information on the
system that will potentially impact the northern Gulf this week.

A low to mid-level trough prevails across the NE Gulf which
continues to enhance nighttime convection mostly in the Gulf now.
A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low in south Georgia near
31N84W to 27N85W. Convection is seen from 26N-29N between 83W-86W.
Some isolated thunderstorms have moved off the Yucatan into the
Bay of Campeche with some thunderstorm activity moving off the
Mexican coast into adjacent waters in the southern Bay of
Campeche. Most of this activity is south of 20N and east of 95W.
The rest of the Gulf is under a weak surface ridging anchored by a
1015 mb high near 24N91W. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin. There are some
moderate east-southeasterly winds in the western Bay of Campeche.

Weak high pressure will dominate the western Gulf into mid week.
A surface low will move from Georgia to the northeast Gulf on
Wednesday where it will slowly intensify through Friday as it
drifts westward towards SE Texas. Strong to near gale force winds
and building seas are expected for the north-central and northwest
Gulf early Thursday through Saturday associated with the low.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean.

Low to mid-level troughing prevails across the northwest
Caribbean which is enhancing convection over Cuba and Jamaica, as
well as their adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted just west of Haiti. This activity is seen from 17N-21N
between 73W-80W. Isolated thunderstorms are also observed in the
Gulf of Honduras, mostly west of 87W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen in the SW Caribbean off the coasts of
Panama to Nicaragua, south of 12N and west of 79W.  Fair weather
prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean
with light winds in the NW basin, and gentle to moderate trades in
the rest of the area.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Tuesday with
strong winds affecting mainly the Windward Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this wave will affect the SE basin
through Wednesday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad low to mid-level troughing in the SE US is drawing moisture
toward Florida, Bahamas, and west Atlantic. Most of the convection
from earlier this evening has dissipated with some isolated
thunderstorms seen in the northern Bahamas. Isolated thunderstorms
are also seen in the Atlantic from 22N-26N between 60W-66W. To
the east, a stationary front extends from 31N36W to 28N46W with no
significant convection associated with it. Surface ridging
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near
28N38W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds are
seen in the west Atlantic north of 28N between 73W-78W. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are also seen north of Hispaniola.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through
early Wednesday over the offshore waters northeast of Florida due
to a deepening low over Georgia that will move into the NE Gulf
of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate across the
region, supporting gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere, except N
of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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