[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving over West Africa with axis along 15W
from 05N-17N. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the
southern portion of the wave mainly south of 09N.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends its axis along
28W from 17N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers
are present south of 11N.

A tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward, moving W at
10-15 kt. The wave is along the back edge of a large area of
African dust, therefore no significant convection is noted with
this feature at this time. In a few days, convection is likely to
increase along the wave and gusty showers will be expected over
the Windward Islands on Friday. These conditions spread over the
eastern Caribbean through the weekend as the wave moves west.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 15N southward,
moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered convection is from 09N-13N
between 54W- 61W. An increase in shower activity is expected over
the east Caribbean with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W
from 07N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The environment is fairly
dry, therefore only isolated showers are noted along the wave's
axis.

A tropical wave extends along 90W, from 18N southward. This wave
is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails
across the Yucatan Peninsula and the EPAC waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N15W to 07N33W. The ITCZ begins near 07N33W to 07N36W,
then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 08N56W. Aside
from the convection discussed in the section above, no
significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low to mid-level trough prevails across the far eastern Gulf
enhancing convection over the Florida Peninsula mainly east of
85W. A surface trough extends over the NE Gulf from the Florida
Big Bend to 27N84W. The remainder of the Gulf is under weak
surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 24N92W.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds
across the basin.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday in
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression is likely
to form by the end of the week while the low moves slowly westward
over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds to near gale force are
expected in the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week along
with squally weather and high seas, regardless of tropical cyclone
formation. If the system were to become a tropical storm, then
higher winds and seas would occur. Heavy rainfall is possible
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf coast later
this week. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress
of this system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean.

Low to mid-level troughing prevails across the northwest
Caribbean enhancing convection over Cuba and Jamaica, as well as
their adjacent waters. Fair weather prevails across the remainder
of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across the whole area.

High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh tradewinds
in the south-central Caribbean through the next few days. A
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean on Tue with strong
winds and scattered moderate convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad low to mid-level troughing in the SE US is drawing moisture
toward Florida, Bahamas, and west Atlantic. At this time, scattered
moderate convection prevails west of 76W. To the east, a cold
front extends from 32N36W to 30N40W, then transitions to a
stationary front from that point to 27N51W.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through
early Wed over the offshore waters northeast Florida due to a
deepening low over Georgia that will move into the NE Gulf of
Mexico. High pressure will dominate across the region, supporting
gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere, except N of Hispaniola
where fresh to strong trades will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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