[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is
producing disorganized showers and has a medium chance of becoming
a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This disturbance is
expected to move southward or southwestward during the next day or
so, and a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Once the disturbance is
over water, conditions are expected to be conducive for development
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the
week while it progresses westward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later
this week. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving off the coast of western Africa with
axis along 18W south of 17N, moving W around 15 kt. Showers with
embedded thunderstorms are noted from 06N- 12N between 17W- 19W.

A tropical wave in the Atlantic extends its axis along 30W south
of 17N, moving W around 10 kt. There is currently no significant
convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is along 42W south of 13N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen with this
wave mainly from 06N-12N between 41W-45W. Over the next few days,
convective activity with gusty winds will likely increase along
the wave and is expected over the Windward Islands by Friday.
These conditions are expected to spread over the eastern Caribbean
through the weekend as the wave moves west.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 60W south of 16N, moving W
around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this
feature from 11N-16N between 58W-64W. An increase in shower
activity is expected over the east Caribbean with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from
05N- 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms are seen just off the coast of Haiti, otherwise no
significant convection is seen at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 13N17W to 09N34W. The ITCZ begins near 09N34W to 09N41W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 08N43W to the coast of French
Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from the convection discussed in the
section above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the
monsoon trough from 04N-09N between 20W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
system that will potentially impact the northern Gulf this week.

A low to mid-level trough prevails across the NE Gulf which
continues to enhance convection mostly in the north-central and
northeastern Gulf. A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low in
central Georgia near 32N84W to 28N81W, right along the west coast
of Florida. Convection is seen from 23N- 30N between 81W- 90W.
Isolated thunderstorms continue in the southern Bay of Campeche, S
of 21N and W of 93W. The rest of the Gulf is under a weak surface
ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high near 23N87W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin.

Weak high pressure will dominate the western Gulf into mid week.
A surface low will move from Georgia to the northeast Gulf
Wednesday where it will slowly intensify through Saturday,
possibly into a tropical cyclone, as it drifts westward through
the north central and northwest Gulf through late Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean.

Low to mid-level troughing prevails across the northern Caribbean
which is enhancing convection over Cuba and Jamaica, as well as
their adjacent waters. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 17N-22N between 75W-82W. Scattered moderate convection
is also seen in the SW Caribbean off the coasts of Panama to
Nicaragua, enhanced by the monsoon trough, south of 12N and west
of 75W. A surface trough is seen in the Mona Passage between the
Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, from 20N67W to 16N69W.
Scattered showers are seen moving along Puerto Rico toward
Hispaniola. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the
basin. Moderate to fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean
with light winds in the NW basin, and gentle to moderate trades in
the rest of the area.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
tropical wave south of Hispaniola will weaken as it exits the
western Gulf through Thursday. Another tropical wave will move
across the eastern Caribbean today, the central Caribbean
Wednesday, and exit the western Caribbean by Friday into
Saturday. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean
Thursday and move through the central Caribbean through Saturday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad low to mid-level troughing in the SE US is drawing moisture
toward Florida, Bahamas, and west Atlantic. Convection is seen
along the northern Bahamas from 23N-28N between 77W-80W. There is
another area of convection seen in the Atlantic from 23N-27N
between 61W-67W. To the east, a stationary front extends from
31N34W to 28N47W with isolated thunderstorms beginning to fire off
along the boundary, mostly between 40W-47W. Surface ridging
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near
28N52W. Moderate southerly winds are seen in the west Atlantic
north of 26N and east of 70W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
are also seen north of Hispaniola.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through
early Wednesday over the offshore waters northeast of Florida due
to a deepening low over Georgia that will move into the northeast
Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate across the
region, supporting gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere, except
north of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse at
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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