[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 16N
southward. The tropical wave is moving through the Cabo Verde
Islands. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 06N to 08N between 22W and 26W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers
cover the area that is from 08N to 19N between 20w and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 13N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 13N
southward between 30W and 42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 15N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 06N to 11N between 50W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 20N southward between 60W and 63w.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 17N
southward. The tropical wave is passing through Honduras,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow
is along the western coast of Central America. Numerous strong
rainshowers are in W and SW Honduras, and in the southern half
of Costa Rica. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W
in Colombia and 86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of
Honduras, from 18N southward from 84W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to 11N20W, 08N30W, and 06N36W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N36W to 04N45W, to the NE coast of French
Guiana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover
the coastal plains and coastal waters of Africa from Liberia to
Senegal, from 06N to 15N between 10W and 16W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere, from 13N southward from 60W eastward, not
counting any precipitation that is related to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf
of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the
Gulf of Mexico. The only area that does not have the upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is in the westernmost part of the Gulf of
Mexico. An upper level trough passes through the Deep South of
Texas to the coastal waters of Mexico, toward southern Mexico
between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and 100W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Florida, from the
Florida Panhandle southward. Broad surface low pressure is
inland, in the SE U.S.A. A surface trough reaches the NE corner
of the Gulf waters. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 90W
eastward.

Weak high pressure will dominate the basin into mid week. Low
pressure is expected to develop in the NE basin on Wednesday.
The area of low pressure will intensify gradually through
Thursday, and generate strong to near gale-force winds for the
NE waters. More intensification is possible later on Thursday,
along with gale-force winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas from the
Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala. An upper level trough passes
through the Windward Passage, westward and northwestward, to the
Caribbean Sea coastal waters of NW Cuba. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the area of the upper level trough.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, except for an upper level trough that runs
from Puerto Rico to the coast of Venezuela along 65W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is along the western coast
of Central America. Numerous strong rainshowers are in W and SW
Honduras, and in the southern half of Costa Rica. The monsoon
trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and 86W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. The 83W/84W tropical wave also is in the
area.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea during the
entire period. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser
Antilles on Tuesday, with strong winds affecting mainly the
Windward Islands. Rainshowers and thunderstorms that are
associated with this wave will affect the SE part of the basin
through Wednesday. It is possible that a low pressure center may
develop on Friday in the Costa Rica adjacent waters, generating
strong winds off the coast of Nicaragua.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface low pressure in the SE U.S.A. is drawing moisture
toward Florida and the Bahamas and the NW part of the Atlantic
Ocean. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba northward
from 74W westward.

A stationary front is along 32N38W 28N45W 28N53W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N35W 29N42W 29N45W 27N52W 27N60W.

High pressure across the region will support gentle to moderate
breezes during the entire period, except for the NW waters where
moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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