[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from
04N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted within
75 nm on either sides of the wave's axis.

Another tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic, with
axis from 12N31W to a 1012 mb low near 07N32W to 02N32W, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers prevail in the wave's environment
between 28W-35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from
04N-14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N-
12N between 48W-53W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W from 06N-20N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted inland over
South America. Dry Saharan air is limiting any shower activity at
this time across the part of the wave than prevails over the
ocean. A slight increase in showers is possible tonight into
Monday for the Lesser Antilles and E Caribbean.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from
20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails south of 11N between 77W-84W, affecting mainly
Central America and the EPAC waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N23W to 08N37W. The ITCZ begins near
08N37W to 09N47W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section above, no significant shower activity is
noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low to mid level troughing is over the NE Gulf and northern
Florida, enhancing scattered showers and tstorms across the
eastern half of the basin. To the west, a 1018 mb surface high is
centered near 28N92W. A mid-level ridge over the NW Gulf is
leading to subsidence and mostly fair weather in that region.

Weak high pressure will dominate the basin into mid
week. A low pressure is expected to develop in the NE basin on
Wed. The low will intensify gradually through Thu night when it
is expected to generate strong to near gale force winds. Further
intensification is possible on Fri along with gale force winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently over the basin and the one approaching.

An upper level diffluent flow prevails across Central America
enhancing convection at this time. Fair weather prevails across
the Caribbean waters as the atmosphere remains relatively dry and
Saharan dust is also noted. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across most of the basin except between 65W-78W,
where fresh to strong winds prevail.

High pressure north of the area will continue supporting fresh
to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean through the next
several days. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles
by Tue morning with strong to near-gale force winds affecting
mainly the Windward Islands. Showers and tstms associated with
this wave will affect the SE basin through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic mainly west of
75W. To the east, a 1021 mb surface high is centered near 29N64W.
A frontal system entered the central Atlantic near 40W, analyzed
as a cold front from 31N41W to 29N45W to 28N54W, then as a
weakening warm front from that point to 31N58W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin.

High pressure across the region will support gentle
to moderate breezes across the area through the forecast period,
except for the NW waters where moderate to fresh southerly winds
are expected. Low pressure may develop over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico by mid week, allowing southerly winds in the west Atlantic
to increase to strong category.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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