[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 15N
southward. The tropical wave has been moving across the Cabo
Verde Islands. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 06N to 08N between 20W and 26W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers
cover the area that is from 03N to 18N between 20w and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 14N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 02N to 15N between 30W and 45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 15N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 07N to 12N between 48W and 59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 20N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N
to 23N between 57W and 64W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 17N southward.
The tropical wave is passing through Honduras, Nicaragua, and
Costa Rica. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is along the
western coast of Central America. Numerous strong rainshowers
are along the W coast of Central America, from Costa Rica to
Nicaragua, and within 120 nm of the coast of El Salvador and
Guatemala. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in
Colombia and 86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea from 14N southward from 76W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 09N20W, 09N27W, and 08N29W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N29W to 06N35W and 07N42W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers cover the coastal plains and coastal waters of
Africa from Liberia to Guinea-Bissau, from 06N to 11N between
11W and 17W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 13N
southward from 60W eastward, not counting any precipitation that
is related to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico from 90W eastward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is
covering the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and Mexico from 90W westward
to 100W. A surface trough cuts through Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend into the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 100 nm of the
coast of the U.S.A. from SE Louisiana toward the E and SE, to
Florida near 25N.

Weak high pressure will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico into
mid week. It is possible that a low pressure center may form
along a trough in the NE Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the
week. The low pressure center is forecast intensify slowly
through Friday, as it drifts westward. Strong to near gale-force
winds and building seas for the north central Gulf of Mexico
will be generated.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas from the
Yucatan Peninsula to Guatemala. An upper level trough passes
through the Windward Passage, westward and northwestward, to the
Caribbean Sea coastal waters of NW Cuba. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the area of the upper level trough.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, except for an upper level trough that runs
from Hispaniola to 14N67W, to the coast of Venezuela along 65W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is along the western coast
of Central America. Numerous strong rainshowers are along the W
coast of Central America, from Costa Rica to Nicaragua, and
within 120 nm of the coast of El Salvador and Guatemala. The
monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and 86W
in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea
from 14N southward from 76W westward.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea during the
entire period. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser
Antilles on Tuesday, with strong winds affecting mainly the
Windward Islands. Rainshowers and thunderstorms that are
associated with this wave will affect the SE part of the basin
through the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface low pressure in the SE U.S.A. is drawing moisture
toward Florida and the Bahamas and the NW part of the Atlantic
Ocean. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba northward
from 74W westward.

A stationary front is along 31N37W 28N45W 27N53W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N35W 30N40W 29N43W 29N45W 27N48W 27N50W
26N52W.

Moderate to fresh southerly wind flow will persist through
Tuesday, off northeast Florida between a deepening trough that
is in Georgia and high pressure to the east. The high pressure
will prevail by mid week across the region. It will support
gentle to moderate breezes through the remainder of the entire
period north of 22N. Fresh trade winds will persist north of
Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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