[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W from 17N in
Mauritania southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 07N
to 14N between Africa and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 16N
southward. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 28W
and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 16N
southward. This wave is moving through the area of broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and upper level SW wind flow.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers are in Venezuela from 07N to 11N between 63W and
71W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 15N southward.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of SW Senegal
near its border with Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 11N20W. The
ITCZ is along 11N20W 08N26W 06N35W 06N45W, 09N60W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 02N to 10N
between 25W and 33W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward, away from the tropical
waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough in Mexico, along 102W/103W, is spreading
upper level cyclonic wind flow across South Texas and Mexico,
and the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are to the W/NW of the line that runs
from near Tampa Florida to the NE corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, including in NW Cuba.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
Florida, the NW three-fourths of the Bahamas, Cuba, the Yucatan
Channel, and the Yucatan Peninsula, between 74W and 90W.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 26N87W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans much of the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure will remain in the region through the week
and into the upcoming weekend. A trough will develop in the
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and move offshore across the
Bay of Campeche during the evening hours, bringing fresh to
locally strong winds to the SW Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
rainshowers and thunderstorms in the western half of the basin
tonight and on Tuesday may be accompanied by strong gusty winds
and locally rough seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from 25N50W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to Puerto Rico, to a
weak 15N77W cyclonic circulation center, continuing into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level SW wind flow is to the
south and southeast of the trough. Upper level moisture is being
pushed northeastward by the upper level wind flow. Little to no
deep convective precipitation is apparent with the trough.
Earlier rainshowers in Hispaniola have been weakening and
dissipating. Earlier precipitation that was off the coast of NW
Venezuela also has weakened and dissipated.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 73W in northern
Colombia and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Earlier precipitation, that was in the coastal waters of Panama,
Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, from 12N southward, from 78W westward,
has weakened and dissipated.

The pressure gradient, between North Atlantic Ocean high
pressure and lower pressures in northern Colombia, will support
strong to near gale-force winds, pulsing each night off the
coast of Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela through the
middle of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere, across much of the Caribbean Sea this week and into
the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the waters that are from 25N
northward from 54W westward. A cold front is along 32N/33N
between 65W and 78W. A surface trough is along 31N69W 28N72W. An
upper level trough is on top of the area of the precipitation.

A surface trough is along 26N49W 23N51W 20N52W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 40W and 55W.

Fresh SW winds, and scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms,
will persist tonight, ahead of the 26N49W 23N51W 20N52W surface
trough. A weak cold front will move across the waters N of 27N
late tonight and on Tuesday. The front will stall from near
31N60W to the northern Bahamas by Tuesday night, before
dissipating on Wednesday. A ridge will persist along 24N through
Wednesday, and then weaken by Thursday. High pressure will build
again across the northern waters from Friday through Saturday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

mt
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