[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 20W from 05N
to 22N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 07N to
10N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 39W from 03N to
17N is moving westward near 20 kt. A trade wind surge trails the
wave. Model diagnostics depict this wave. The total precipitable
water (TPW) imagery shows a maximum in moisture content across the
wave axis from 04N to 11N and between 35W-40W. However, no deep
convection is presently noted with this wave. Only isolated
showers within 90 nm either side of the wave are seen from 03N to
09N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave with axis along 70W south
of 16N is moving westward at about 20 kt. Latest TPW imagery shows
moisture concentrated to the south of 14N between 67W and 74W. The
wave is moving through an area of broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and upper-level strong southwest winds that are in advance
of an upper-level trough that is over the western Caribbean.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south 14N
between 66W and 71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along roughly along
80W is moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is passing
underneath an area of subsidence and dry air present north of 13N
in association with a western Caribbean upper-level trough and low.
The only moisture content with this wave is found in the usual
far southwestern Caribbean area primarily south of 13N between
76W and 81W, where isolated showers and thunderstorms are
occurring.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal of southwestern
Senegal near its border with Guinea-Bissau at 12N17W and continues
to 08N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicated that it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N30W 05N37W. It resumes
to the west of the tropical wave along 39W at 05N40W and to
04N51W. Aside from shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with tropical waves as described above, only scattered moderate
convection is seen within 210 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-
35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low over central Mexico is embedded within a
broad trough that stretches from Missouri to Texas and to the
central region of Mexico. Strong upper-level winds to the east
of the trough and low expand eastward to the western Gulf. These
winds are spreading upper-level moisture in the form of mostly
broken high clouds across the western and north-central Gulf
areas. The total precipitable water imagery depicts abundant
moisture over the much of the western and central Gulf, and is
spreading northward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted west of 91W, and also north of 25N between 85W and 91W.
With this moisture in place and along with atmospheric conditions
becoming more unstable today, expect for the shower and thunderstorm
activity to further increase through tonight and into Wed over
the western and north-central Gulf waters. Some of this activity
may be accompanied by strong gusty winds and rough seas. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected elsewhere over the Gulf
through Wed.

A weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 27N86W, with
associated anticyclonic flow covering much of the Gulf. The weak
high pressure will change little through the upcoming weekend.
trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and
move offshore across the Bay of Campeche during the evening hours,
bringing fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds to the
SW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic near
28N44W southwestward to the Mona Passage and eastern Dominican
Republic, and from there it continues southwestward to a rather
ill-defined upper-level low at 16N77W and to a base at 10N81W.
Strong upper-level southwest to west winds are southeast of the
trough. These winds are advecting abundant upper-level moisture in
the form of broken high clouds east-northeastward to across the
south-central and eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are south of 13N and between 66W and 62W.
Dry sinking air is situated to the northwest of the upper-level
trough to near 82W, where skies are relatively cloud free except
for small pockets of scattered low clouds.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over northern
Colombia was aided by the eastern extension of the E Pacific
monsoon trough. This activity has weakened some over the past few
hours.

The pressure gradient, between North Atlantic Ocean high pressure
and lower pressures in northern Colombia, will support strong to
near gale-force winds, pulsing each night off the coast of
Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. High pressure
will build north of the region Fri through Sat night, with
the associated pressure gradient to bring strong east winds and
building seas across much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean waters.

A tropical wave, currently over eastern Atlantic as described
above, is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Thu
through Fri accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Strong gusty winds can be expected with this activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the waters that are from 25N
northward from 54W westward. A cold front dipping southward
extends from 32N64W to 31N70W and northwestward to north of the
area at 32N73W. A trough out ahead of it extends from near 30N68W
to 25N 73W. These features are being driven by a broad deep-layer
trough that is gradually sliding eastward north of 26N and
between 54W and 71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen within 90 nm either side of a line from 32N59W to 28N63W
to 25N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm
of a line from 30N69W to 31N73W. The deep-layer trough will shift
eastward through the next 24 to 48 hours, while the cold front
will reach from near 32N60W to 28N60W by early this evening and
become stationary. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds will
precede the cold front today.

Elsewhere, broad scale high pressure is the main feature. It is
forecast to change little through the next 48 hours. The associated
gradient between it and relatively lower pressure to the south,
over the Caribbean Sea, will allow for east winds to pulse to
fresh to locally strong speeds between the southeastern Bahamas
and Hispaniola in the late afternoons and evenings through the
upcoming weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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