[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 16N southward,
moving W at 20-25kt. The wave is noticeable in the wave model
diagnostics and TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is seen
along and within 270 nm E of the wave axis from 05N-09N. This
tropical wave is expected to bring enhanced showers and tstorms to
the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 16N southward,
moving W around 20 kt. The TPW product shows enhanced moisture
with the southern part of the wave south of 14N. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm on either side of the wave
axis from 10N-13N. Scattered showers are seen elsewhere south of
16N between the Lesser Antilles and 71W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 15N southward,
moving W around 20 kt. Dry air and subsidence prevails in the
wave's environment inhibiting convection north of 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W to 11N20W. The ITCZ begins near 11N20W to
06N33W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 06N36W to the
coast of South America near 08N59W. Excluding the convection near
the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen from
09N-14N between 17W-21W, from 05N-10N between 24W-30W, and from
07N-10N between 58W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low continues over NE Mexico centered near 25N100W.
Southerly flow at all levels of the atmosphere over the western
Gulf of Mexico continues to draw in moist air from the tropics.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 19N-25N between 91W-
97W. Mid-upper level high pressure is centered over Florida and
the far eastern Gulf. Although a 1019 mb surface high is analyzed
over the Gulf near 27N86W, southerly mid-upper level winds are
bringing moisture to the area, so scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are seen from 25N-29N between 85W-90W.

Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the week.
A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon
and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche during the evening
hours and into the morning through Thu, bringing fresh to locally
strong northeast winds to the area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the western half of the basin and
will shift to the northern Gulf by late Tue. This activity may be
accompanied by strong gusty winds, possible frequent lightning
and at times, rough seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Gale Warning for the gales off the coast of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela expired earlier this morning at 1200 UTC.
However, strong to near gale force trades continue in the south-
central Caribbean Sea.

A dry air mass accompanying a low to mid level ridge currently
stretches from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola to Jamaica, including the
adjacent waters of the north-central Caribbean. Little to no
significant precipitation is seen here or in the northwest
Caribbean. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered showers and tstorms
are seen south of 11N between 75W-85W in association with the East
Pacific monsoon trough and some tropical waves traversing the
region. Convection in the SE Caribbean is mentioned above in the
Tropical Waves section.

The combination of a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
high and lower than typical pressures over northern Colombia is
currently allowing for strong to near gale force winds to pulse
each night through mid-week just offshore Colombia. These winds
will diminish by daytime hours. This pressure gradient will also
enhance the winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean
through the remainder of the week, with moderate to fresh trades
expected to prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 28N72W to 31N69W. Upper-level
diffluence in the area is leading to scattered moderate convection
seen within 120 nm either side of a line extending from 27N74W to
29N69W to 31N64W to 32N60W. Isolated showers accompany another
surface trough that extends from 21N51W to 26N47W. The remainder
of the eastern Atlantic is under surface ridging, anchored by a
1030 mb high near 39N22W.

A weak high pressure ridge will remain along 24N through Wed
before shifting northward to near 27N by late on Thu. A weak cold
front will move across the waters N of 27N tonight into Tue, then
stall from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas by early Tue
evening. The front will slowly dissipate through Wed night. Ahead
of this front, fresh southwest winds are expected over the
northeast forecast waters this afternoon and tonight. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are well ahead of the front N
of 27N and E of 76W. This activity will gradually shift east-
southeastward through early Wed before decreasing as it lifts
northward Wed through Fri night with the remnants of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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