[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 PM EDT Sat Oct 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Oscar centered near 27.3N 48.4W at 27/1500 UTC
or 900 nm ESE of Bermuda moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. A westward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected today and tonight, followed by a
reduction in speed on Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast on Monday. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next several days, and Oscar could become a tropical storm
by early next week. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 49W from
03N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 10N. TPW
satellite imagery shows this wave embedded in a region of deep
layer moisture. This feature is also depicted in tropical wave
model diagnostics.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N17W to
11N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N39W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either side of the
ITCZ between 20W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the southern portion of the basin from
25N81W to 22N90W, where it becomes stationary reaching the Bay of
Campeche near 20N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the
stationary front. High pressure is building in the wake of the
front. Another frontal boundary is expected to enter the northern
Gulf by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a surface high centered
north of the area. Broad mid to upper level anticyclonic wind
flow spans the entire area.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
today. A frontal boundary currently over the Gulf of Mexico will
eventually push across the Yucatan Channel tonight. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are expected over the south central
Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed from
31N74W to 26N80W with scattered showers. To the east, Subtropical
storm Oscar is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for details. A surface trough extends from the
Canary Islands to 26N30W with no significant convection at this
time.

The front will stall and weaken from around 31N70W to central
Cuba on Sunday. A second cold front will move east of north
Florida on Monday, then slowly move south and stall over the
northern Bahamas by Tuesday.

Elsewhere, surface ridging over the Atlantic is weakened by low
pressure moving over the western Atlantic from SE US and Sub T.S.
Oscar. With these, light to moderate trades prevail over the
tropical Atlantic from the ITCZ to 15N between 25W and the
Windward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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