[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
743 PM EDT Sat Oct 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Oscar centered near 26.9N 50.7W at 27/2100 UTC
or 800 nm ESE of Bermuda moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. A turn toward the west-southwest is
anticipated overnight, followed by a turn back toward the west on
Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and
then the northeast by early next week. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is
expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after transitioning
to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next week.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-28N between 46W-52W.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 50W from
03N-15N, moving west at 10-15 kt.  TPW satellite imagery shows
this wave embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. This
feature is also depicted in tropical wave model diagnostics.
Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 45W-51W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W to
10N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N29W to 05N48W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 20W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the southern portion of the basin from
24N80W to 22N90W, where it becomes stationary reaching the Bay of
Campeche near 20N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the
stationary front. High pressure is building in the wake of the
front. Another frontal boundary is expected to enter the northern
Gulf by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a surface high centered
north of the area. Broad mid to upper level anticyclonic wind
flow spans the entire area.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
today. A frontal boundary currently over the Gulf of Mexico will
eventually push across the Yucatan Channel tonight. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds are expected over the south central
Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N72W to
24N80W with scattered showers. To the east, Subtropical storm
Oscar is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to the section
above for details. A surface trough extends from the Canary
Islands near 29N15W to 25N22W to 25N30W with no significant
convection at this time.

The front will stall and weaken from around 31N70W to central
Cuba on Sunday. A second cold front will move east of north
Florida on Monday, then slowly move south and stall over the
northern Bahamas by Tuesday.

Elsewhere, surface ridging over the Atlantic is weakened by low
pressure moving over the western Atlantic from SE US and Sub T.S.
Oscar. Light to moderate trades prevail over the tropical
Atlantic from the ITCZ to 15N between 25W and the Windward
Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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