[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 AM EDT Sat Oct 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Oscar centered near 27.3N 47.0W at 27/0900 UTC
or 970 nm ESE of Bermuda moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. A westward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected today and tonight, followed by a
reduction in speed on Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast on Monday. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next several days, and Oscar is expected to make a transition
to a tropical storm on Sunday. Oscar could then become a hurricane
by early next week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 47W from
02N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 10N. TPW
satellite imagery shows this wave to be embedded in a region of
deep layer moisture. This feature also is well depicted in
tropical wave model diagnostic and initial 700 mb model fields.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough heads WSW from the coast of Guinea on the
African coast near 11N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from
08N17W to 05N26W to 04N34W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 09N between 16W
and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front curves SW from 26N82W to 23N91W, then becomes
stationary to 21N97W. Scattered moderate and convection is noted
along and up to 120 nm N of the front to the W of 87W.

High pressure building SE from the southern plains of the United
States will eventually push the front to the SE of the Gulf by
Sun morning. A second and much weaker cold front will clip the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Mon and Tue, followed by high pressure
building SW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a 1026 mb Atlantic Ocean
high centered near 35N62W toward the Caribbean. Broad mid to upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea through Saturday. A frontal boundary currently over the Gulf
of Mexico will eventually push across the Yucatan Channel on
Saturday night and Sunday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are
expected over the south central Caribbean Sea on Sat night and
Sun, before low pres moving over the western Atlc from the
eastern United states weakens the ridge N of the Caribbean Mon and
Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent S to SSW low-level winds to the E of a cold front over
Florida are generating scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 23N to 28N between 72W and 75W.

A surface trough curves W from weak 1012 mb low pressure centered
just NW of the Canary Islands near 30N19W to 27N25W to 28N30W.
This system has no significant convection currently associated
with it.

The cold front extends across the western Atlantic with scattered
showers. It will stall and weaken from around 31N70W to central
Cuba on Sunday. A second but weaker cold front will move E of
north Florida Mon then slowly sink S Tue and stall over the
northern Bahamas by early next week.

Elsewhere, high pressure ridging over the Atlc is weakened by low
pres moving over the western Atlc from the SE United States, Sub
T.S. Oscar and low pres near the Canary Islands. Accordingly, the
weakened ridge is generally supporting light to moderate trades
over the tropical Atlc from the ITCZ to 15N between 25W and the
Windward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

McElroy/ERA
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