[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 41W from
01N-11N, moving west around 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by
model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant
moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 05N-13N between 37W-47W. Some slight development
of this system is possible during the next day or two before
environmental conditions become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 08N-20N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses
with the wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW. Scattered
showers are noted from 17N-21N between 45W-50W and along the
wave's axis south of 11N. Moisture with this tropical wave could
enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles early
this week accompanied with fresh to strong winds and associated
seas over the eastern Caribbean.

A tropical wave extends it axis along 60W from 08N-20N. Scattered
showers prevail in the wave's environment mainly north of 15N.
Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely for the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, spreading to
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of
Africa near the Senegal/Guinea-Bissau border near 13N17W and
extends to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 06N39W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N45W to northern French
Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is
noted within 300 nm north of the ITCZ mainly west of 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 24N84W to 26N81W. A
surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored
by a 1023 mb high centered over Central Virginia near 38N78W.
With this, dry air prevails across most of the basin. The remnants
of the front will lift north tonight.The next cold front is
expected to enter the far NW Gulf by Tuesday morning. This front
will stall from S central Louisiana to the western Gulf along 96W
through Thu night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are
likely behind that front starting Tue night. Showers and
thunderstorms will become likely over the far NW Gulf on Monday
ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad 1009 mb low is centered near 14N81W. The monsoon trough
extends W from the low to 16N76W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails from 09N-16N between 68W-84W. This activity is enhanced
by a diffluent flow aloft just east of an upper-level trough that
prevails over the western Caribbean. The broad low will slowly
shift W toward central America through Mon. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue over the western Caribbean
and Central America during the next few days.

Two tropical waves will affect the Lesser Antilles over the next
few days. See the Tropical Waves section for more details.

High pressure building over the W Atlantic will support fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage, Hispaniola
adjacent waters and along the coast of Colombia Tue night through
early Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere through the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are in the Tropical Atlantic between the
Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. See the Tropical Waves
section above for details.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N63W to
29N71W, where it becomes a stationary front. The stationary front
extends from that point to 27N80W. Scattered showers prevail
along the cold front. To the southeast, a surface trough is
analyzed north of Hispaniola from 24N67W to 22N72W. Scattered
showers are east of the trough south of 25N between 54W-67W
enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft.

Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N15W to
31N27W. A surface trough is from 29N16N to 26N19W. A 1025 mb high
is centered near 33N32W, leading to relatively quiet weather
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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