[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 39W from
01N-11N, moving west around 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by
model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant
moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring within 240 nm of the wave axis from 06N-11N. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 48W from 08N-21N. The wave
is moving west at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model
analyses with the wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW.
Scattered showers are noted from 17N-21N between 45W-49W and south
of 11N between 46W-55W. Moisture with this tropical wave could
enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles early
this week accompanied with fresh to strong winds and associated
seas over the eastern Caribbean.

A tropical wave extends it axis along 59W from 08N-21N. Numerous
moderate convection is seen from 14N-23N between 54W-62W.
Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely for the Leeward and
northern Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, spreading to
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of
Africa near the Senegal/Guinea-Bissau border near 12N17W and
extends to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 09N22W to 07N33, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N39W to northern French
Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along the west coast of Africa well south of the
monsoon trough near the coast of southern Guinea and northern
Sierra Leone.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends south of Everglades City,
FL near 26N81W to 23N84W to 22N87W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over western Cuba and the adjacent
waters just off the northern coast of western Cuba. Dry air
prevails north of the front across nearly all of the Gulf. The
remnants of the front will lift N Sun through Mon morning ahead of
the next cold front which will enter the far NW and W central
Gulf by Tue morning. This new front will stall from S central
Louisiana to the western Gulf along 96W through Thu night. Strong
to near gale force northerly winds are likely behind that front
starting Tue night. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely
over the far NW Gulf late Monday and Monday night ahead of this
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad 1009 mb low is centered near 13N81W. The monsoon trough
extends W from the low over Central America. Scattered moderate
convection continues over central Nicaragua and southern Honduras.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the southwest
Caribbean west of 77W and south of 16N. The broad low will slowly
shift W toward central America through Mon. Enhanced showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue over the western Caribbean
and Central America during the next few days.

Over the east-central Caribbean, shower and thunderstorm activity
has generally decreased somewhat over the past 24 hours. However,
abundant cloudiness and scattered showers still persist over the
region. In terms of sky cover and convection, expect weather
conditions to improve slightly today between 63W-70W compared to
the last couple days.

Two tropical waves will affect the Lesser Antilles over the next
few days. See the Tropical Waves section for more details.

High pressure building over the W Atlantic will support fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage, Hispaniola
adjacent waters and along the coast of Colombia Tue night through
early Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere through the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are in the Tropical Atlantic between the
Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. See the Tropical Waves
section above for details.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N67W to
29N73W, where it becomes a stationary front. The stationary front
extends from that point to 27N80W. Isolated showers prevail
within 120 nm southeast of the front near the northwest Bahamas
and the waters to the northeast of the northwest Bahamas. To the
southeast, a surface trough is analyzed north of the Dominican
Republic from 21N68W to 19N74W. Scattered showers are east of the
trough north of Puerto Rico from 19N-23N between 60W-69W.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from 32N17W to 31N24W to
32N27W. Overcast low clouds are noted in the area of the front
and trough with only isolated light showers. A 1025 mb high is
centered near 34N32W, leading to relatively quiet weather from
25N-32N between 30W-53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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