[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 37W from
01N-12N, moving west around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by
model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant
moisture in its environment. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is occurring within 240 nm west of the wave axis and 60
nm east of the wave axis from from 04N-10N. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 08N46W to a 1013
mb low near 16N46W to 21N46W. The wave is moving west at 15-20 kt.
These features are the remnants of Nadine. A 700 mb trough is
depicted by model analyses with the wave, and there is a local
maximum in TPW. Scattered showers are noted from 15N-19N between
43W-47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted along
the southern portion of the wave from 08N-11N extending westward
from the wave to 53W. Moisture with this tropical wave could
enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles Tue
into early Wed accompanied with fresh to strong winds and
associated seas over the eastern Caribbean.

A tropical wave that had previously become diffuse has become
better defined again along 57/58W and is moving westward at 5-10
kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 15N-19N
between 56W-59W. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely
for the Leeward and northern Windward Islands this afternoon and
tonight, spreading to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Mon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of
Africa near the Senegal/Guinea-Bissau border near 12N17W and
extends to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 09N22W to 07N33, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N39W to northern French
Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along the west coast of Africa well south of the
monsoon trough near the coast of southern Guinea and northern
Sierra Leone.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends south of Everglades City,
FL near 26N81W to 23N84W to 22N87W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over western Cuba and the adjacent
waters just off the northern coast of western Cuba. Dry air
prevails north of the front across nearly all of the Gulf.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the west coast of the
Yucatan and far eastern Bay of Campeche. The remnants of the
front will lift N Sun through Mon morning ahead of the next cold
front which will enter the far NW and W central Gulf by Tue
morning. This new front will stall from S central Louisiana to the
western Gulf along 96W through Thu night. Strong to near gale
force northerly winds are likely behind that front starting Tue
night. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely over the far
NW Gulf late Monday and Monday night ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad 1009 mb low is centered near 14N81W. A trough extends from
the low northward to 19N81W. Another trough extends ENE from the
low to 16N74W. The monsoon trough extends W from the low over
Central America. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
continues over central Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the southwest Caribbean
west of 77W and south of 16N. The broad low will slowly
shift W toward central America through Mon. Enhanced showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue over the western Caribbean
and Central America during the next few days.

Over the east-central Caribbean, shower and thunderstorm activity
has generally decreased somewhat over the past 24 hours. However,
abundant cloudiness and scattered showers still persist over the
region. In terms of sky cover and convection, expect weather
conditions to improve slightly today between 63W-70W compared to
the last couple days.

Two tropical waves will affect the Lesser Antilles over the next
few days. See the tropical waves section for more details.

High pressure building over the W Atlantic will support fresh to
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage, Hispaniola
adjacent waters and along the coast of Colombia Tue night through
early Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere through the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are in the Tropical Atlantic between the
Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. See the Tropical Waves
section above for details.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N68W to
28N76W, where it becomes a stationary front. The stationary front
extends from 28N76W to near West Palm Beach Florida. Isolated showers
prevail within 120 nm southeast of the front near the northwest
Bahamas and the waters to the northeast of the northwest Bahamas.
Scattered showers are also within 150 nm southeast of the front
north of 30N. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed north of
the Dominican Republic from 25N69W to 20N70W. Scattered showers
are east of the trough north of Puerto Rico from 19N-23N between
60W-69W.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from 32N17W to 31N24W to
32N27W. A surface trough is from 32N12W to 29N16W. Overcast low
clouds are noted in the area of the front and trough with only
isolated light showers. A 1026 mb high is centered near 34N34W,
leading to relatively quiet weather from 25N-32N between 30W-53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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