[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Leslie has transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone, and NHC issued
the final advisory at 13/2100 UTC. Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie is
centered near 40.5N 09.5W at 13/2100 UTC or about 75 nm SSW of
Porto, Portugal or about 110 N of Lisbon, Portugal moving NE at
30 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. This northeast
motion is expected to continue until the center makes landfall
in Portugal around 14/0000 UTC. Dissipation is expected over
northern Spain late Sunday. See the final NHC forecast/advisory on
Leslie under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more
details. Interests in Portugal can find products from the
Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.
Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State
Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 35/36W from
00N-11N, moving west around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by
model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery shows abundant
moisture in its environment. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring from 03N-10N between 33W-42W. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from 08N44W to a 1013
mb low near 16N44W to 20N43W. The wave is moving west around 15
kt. These features are the remnants of Nadine. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 15N-19N between 41W-45W.

The tropical wave that was previously along 56W from 08N-21N has
been dropped from the analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 12N20W. The ITCZ extends from
12N21W to 09N25W to 08N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave
from 05N38W to northern French Guiana near 05N54W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave along 36W, isolated to
scattered showers are located 120 nm to 310 nm north of the ITCZ
between 45W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Cape Sable, Florida to the Dry
Tortugas to 22N88W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
occurring well ahead of the front over western Cuba. Dry air
prevails north of the front across nearly all of the Gulf.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the west coast of the
Yucatan and far eastern Bay of Campeche. The stationary front
will continue to weaken and wash out tonight. The remnants of the
front will then lift N Sun through Mon morning.

Another stationary front extends from Jacksonville Florida to
Apalachicola Florida to near Biloxi Mississippi. No convection is
noted with this front.

Another cold front will enter the far NW and W central Gulf by
Tue afternoon. This new front will stall from S central Louisiana
to the western Gulf along 96W through Wed night. Strong to near
gale force northerly winds are likely behind that front starting
Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Over the eastern and central Caribbean, ample moisture is present
along with persistent disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. These showers and thunderstorms are affecting the
northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and most of
the eastern Caribbean east of 73W and north of 12N.

Over the western Caribbean, a broad 1010 mb low is analyzed near
14N81W. A surface trough extends from the low to 19N81W. GOES-16
Total Precipitable water shows high moisture content over this
region. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-17N
between 76W and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is over the northern two-thirds of Nicaragua, much of
Honduras and southern Guatemala. The broad low will slowly move
west toward Central America through early next week. Widespread enhanced
convection is expected to persist over the western Caribbean and
central America into early next week. Another surface trough is
located over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize with scattered
showers.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the basin through
most of the period. However, high pressure building over the W
Atlc will support fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras,
Windward Passage, Hispaniola adjacent waters and along the coast
of Colombia Tue night through early Thu. Otherwise, a tropical
wave, remnants of Nadine, will reach the Lesser Antilles Tue
night accompanied with fresh to strong winds and associated seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information on Post-tropical
Cyclone Leslie, the remnants of Nadine (now a tropical wave) and
the tropical wave along 36.

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N70W
to near Miami Florida. Scattered showers prevail about within 270
nm southeast of the front. To the east, a surface trough is
analyzed north of the Dominican Republic from 25N69W to 20N70W
moving westward. The trough is helping to enhance showers and
thunderstorms over Puerto Rico to 23N between 60W-69W.

Farther east, a cold front extends south of Leslie from 32N17W to
31N28W. A surface trough is from 31N14W to 26N21W. No significant
convection is noted. A 1025 mb high is centered near 33N37W,
leading to relatively quiet weather from 25N-32N between 43W-53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen/ERA
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