[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1009 mb low, associated with a Central American Gyre, is
centered over the southwestern Caribbean Sea near 15N80W. The
monsoon trough extends NE from the low to 16N77W. The monsoon
trough extends W from the low to NE Nicaragua to Honduras to
Guatemala. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the W
Caribbean from 11N-16N between 75W-82W. This activity is enhanced
by an area of upper-level anticyclonic flow over the same area.
Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate scattered strong
convection over northeastern Costa Rica, much of Nicaragua and
central Honduras. Scattered thunderstorms are noted over southern
Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas. This broad low
pressure system is moving slowly west-northwestward, and some
gradual development is possible before it moves inland over
Central America Monday night or Tuesday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is
possible across portions of Central America for much of the week.
In addition to the potential for heavy rain over Central America,
these rains could spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of
southern Mexico this week.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from
01N-12N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by
model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant
moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring from 07N-13N between 42W-47W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 08N-21N, moving
west around 15 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses
with the wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N-18N between 48W-
52W. Scattered showers are noted from 19N-22N between 46W-50W and
along the wave's axis south of 13N. Moisture with this tropical
wave is likely to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the
Lesser Antilles Tuesday into Wednesday. The waves along 43W and
51W will enhance showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
Caribbean sea during the middle of this week.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from 08N-21N. Isolated
showers are noted over the northern Windward and southern Leeward
Islands. Additional scattered moderate convection is seen from
08N-13N between 57W-59W. The northern end of the wave will be
moving into an area of diffluent flow after tonight. Enhanced
showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight for the Leeward
Islands and Virgin Islands, spreading to Puerto Rico on Monday.
This wave is expected to weaken as it moves toward the central
Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of
Africa near 12N16W and extends to 08N29W. The ITCZ extends from
08N29W to 09N40W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, no other significant convection is
currently seen on satellite imagery with the monsoon trough or
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 24N84W to 26N81W. A
surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored
by a 1023 mb high centered over Central Virginia near 38N78W.
With this, dry air prevails across most of the basin. The remnants
of the front will lift north tonight.The next cold front is
expected to enter the far NW Gulf by Tuesday morning. This front
will stall from S central Louisiana to the western Gulf along 96W
through Thu night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are
likely behind that front starting Tue night. Showers and
thunderstorms will become likely over the far NW Gulf on Monday
ahead of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves will affect the Lesser Antilles over the
next few days. See the Tropical Waves section for more details.
See Special Features section for information relating to the
broad low in the western Caribbean

Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring on
the northwest coast of Venezuela from 10N-12N between 68W-74W.
Scattered showers prevail between 68W-70W between the eastern
Dominican Republic and the coast of Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are in the Tropical Atlantic between the
Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. See the Tropical Waves
section above for details.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N62W to
30N66W, where it becomes a stationary front. The stationary front
extends from that point to 29N73W, where it becomes a dissipating
stationary front. The dissipating stationary front extends from
that point to near Everglades City, Florida. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms prevail over portions of South Florida near the
front. To the southeast, a surface trough is analyzed over the
southeast Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east
of the trough from 19N-23N between 65W-70W, enhanced by a
diffluent flow aloft.

Farther east, a cold front the coast of Morocco near 31N10W to
31N14W. A 1024 mb high is centered near 33N37W, leading to
relatively quiet weather elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA/Hagen
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