[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Michael is centered near 36.1N 78.8W at 11/2100
UTC or 20 nm NNW of Raleigh North Carolina moving NE at 21 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Storm motion is expected
to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A
turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed is
expected on Friday and Saturday. Gale to storm-force winds are
expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme
northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula late
tonight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. Michael is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina,
into south- central to southeast Virginia, including the southern
Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are
possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead
to life-threatening flash floods. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Leslie centered near 29.9N 36.5W at 11/2100 UTC or 680
nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. The government of Portugal has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Madeira Island. A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie
will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible tonight and early Friday, but steady
weakening is forecast to begin by Friday night. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 27N-35N between 33W-41W. See
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 14.5N 34.9W at 11/2100 UTC
or 610 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Nadine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected tonight and early Friday.  A turn toward
the west with an increase in forward speed is anticipated by Friday
night. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low
pressure over the weekend. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 14N-16N between 31W-35W. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 51W from 05N-19N based on the satellite
imagery and observations. Maximum in Total Precipitable Water is
noted with the wave. Scattered showers are near the wave axis
particularly North of 14N.

The remnants of a tropical wave is near Jamaica. This feature is
now a surface trough from 18N79W to 12N79W nearly stationary.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed where the ITCZ
encounters the monsoon trough in the southwest Caribbean. In this
area, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in the
next day or two. This system is forecast to slowly move westward
toward Central America through early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to support some slow development, however,
interaction with land could limit the chance of formation once
the system approaches Central America on Monday or Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Senegal near
13N17W and continues westward to near 12N27W, then resumes
southwest of Tropical Cyclone Nadine from 10N35W to 08N48W.
Other than the convection mentioned above associated with Nadine,
scattered showers are south of the Monsoon Trough to the equator
between 05W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the central
Gulf near 25N90W to 25N97W. Isolated moderate convection is along
the and within 240 nm S of the front, in the warm sector.
This front will continue moving southeast reaching the Florida
Peninsula this weekend. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate winds across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is over the W Caribbean near 16N82W. A Central
American Gyre is developing in the southwest Caribbean enhancing
convection between 73W-82W. In the same area, a surface trough has
been analyzed. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for
details about this feature. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft
prevails over the northeast Caribbean enhancing convection across
the waters south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Expect moderate tradewinds to prevail across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane
Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical
Storm Nadine, and the tropical wave along 51W.

Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic west of 77W due
to T.S. Michael's rainband. To the east, a 1018 mb high is
centered near 32N60W. Another 1017 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 28N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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