[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Michael centered near 34.7N 80.8W at 11/1500 UTC
or 30 nm SSE of Charlotte North Carolina moving towards the NE at
20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A motion toward
the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast through
Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will
continue to move across central and eastern North Carolina today,
move across southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the
western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Little change in strength is
expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading
northward along the coast of the Carolinas. Michael is forecast to
intensify as it becomes a post- tropical low over the Atlantic
late tonight. Michael will continue to produce between 4 and 7
inches of rain over the Southeast of the United State. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Tornadoes
are possible through this evening across central and eastern
North Carolina and southeast Virginia. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Leslie centered near 29.1N 38.3W at 11/1500 UTC or 775
nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 14 kt, and this general motion
with some increase in forward speed could begin by late Saturday.
Based on the latest official forecast track, Leslie may approach
the Madeira Islands on Saturday. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 30 nm N and 60 nm S semicircle of Leslie's center.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is from 26N-32N between
35W-41W. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but weakening is expected over the weekend. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 14.1N 34.0W at 11/1200 UTC or
560 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7
kt. A turn toward the west-northwest with a similar forward speed
is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the west by
the weekend. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Visible
satellite imagery shows the center of Nadine is totally exposed
and located to the southwest of an area of numerous moderate
isolated strong convection located nearly 50 nm to the southwest
of the nearest deep convection. Gradual weakening is expected
during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to
degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is relocated along 49W from 05N-19N based on the
satellite imagery and observations. Maximum in Total Precipitable
Water is noted with the wave. Scattered showers are near the wave
axis particularly North of 14N.

A second tropical wave extends from Jamaica near 18N77W crossing
Panama into the EPAC. This feature has been analyzed as a surface
trough at this time as it lost identity and remains nearly
stationary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
where the ITCZ encounters the monsoon trough in the southwest
Caribbean. In this area, a broad area of low pressure is expected
to develop in the next day or two. This system is forecast to
slowly move westward toward Central America through early next
week. Environmental conditions are expected to support some slow
development, however, interaction with land could limit the chance
of formation once the system approaches Central America on Monday
or Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Senegal near
13N17W and continues westward to near 12N27W, then resumes
southwest of Tropical Cyclone Nadine from 10N35W to 08N48W.
Other than the convection mentioned above associated with Nadine,
scattered showers are south of the Monsoon Trough to the equator
between 05W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S. Michael is inland north of the basin. Refer to the section
above for details. A surface trough extends south of Michael
northern Florida and eastern Gulf waters from 29N83W to 25N85W.
Scattered moderate convection are noted within 150 nm south of
the trough between 81W-83W. To the west, a cold front extends
across the northwest Gulf waters from 31N87W to 26N91W to 26N97W
with scattered showers. This front will continue moving southeast
reaching the Florida Peninsula this weekend. To the southwest, a
surface trough was analyzed across the Bay of Campeche from
23N96W to 19N94W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with this
trough south of 23N and west of 92W. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is over the W Caribbean near 15N81W. A Central
American Gyre is developing in the southwest Caribbean enhancing
convection between 73W-82W. In the same area, a surface trough has
been analyzed. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for
details about this feature. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft
prevails over the northeast Caribbean enhancing convection across
the waters south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Expect moderate tradewinds to prevail across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane
Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical
Storm Nadine, and the tropical wave along 50W.

Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic west of 77W due
to T.S. Michael's rainband. To the east, a 1019 mb high is
centered near 32N60W. Another 1018 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 26N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/MT/GR
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