[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Michael is centered near 37.1N 76.1W at 12/0300
UTC or 10 nm NNE of Norfolk Virginia moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. An east-northeastward motion with a
significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will
move off the coast of Virginia within the next hour or two and
then begin to race east-northeastward across the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean. Michael is expected to become a post-tropical low
overnight and then intensify over the western Atlantic on Friday.
Gale to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and
the Delmarva Peninsula overnight and Friday morning when Michael
becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Michael is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches
across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland, Delaware, and
southern New Jersey. Isolated maximum totals of 7 inches are
possible. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash
floods. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 30.9N 33.9W at 12/0300 UTC or
550 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 23 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt
with gusts to 100 kt. The government of Portugal has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Madeira Island. A continued east-
northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward
the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track,
Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Some
gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie
could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday. Leslie is
expected to produce storm total accumulations of 3 to 6 inches
across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could lead to flash
flooding and landslides over mountainous terrain. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 29N-37N between
30W-39W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nadine is centered near 14.9N 35.5W at 12/0300 UTC
or 640 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at
8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.  A
west-northwestward to westward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. Weakening is forecast
during the next couple of days, and Nadine is expected to
dissipate by Saturday night. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 13N-18N between 31W-36W. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 53W from 07N-21N based on the satellite
imagery and observations. Maximum in Total Precipitable Water is
noted with the wave. Scattered showers are near the wave axis
particularly North of 12N.

The remnants of a tropical wave is S of Jamaica. This feature is
now a surface trough from 17N78W to 11N79W, nearly stationary.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the
trough. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in
the next day or two. This system is forecast to slowly move
westward toward Nicaragua and Honduras through early next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support some slow
development, however, interaction with land could limit the chance
of formation on Monday or Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13N17W and
continues westward to near 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to
05N30W to 09N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ resumes west of Tropical
from 10N55W to 10N61W. Other than the convection mentioned above
associated with Nadine, isolated moderate convection is from
03N-09N between 18W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the central
Gulf near 24N90W to 24N98W. Isolated moderate convection is along
and within 240 nm S of the front. This front will continue moving
southeast reaching S Florida Saturday. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the southern Bay of
Campeche and S Mexico S of 20N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is over the W Caribbean near 16N83W. A Central
American Gyre is developing in the southwest Caribbean enhancing
convection between 73W-83W. In the same area, a surface trough
has been analyzed. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for
details about this feature. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft
prevails over the northeast Caribbean enhancing convection across
the waters south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Expect moderate tradewinds to prevail across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane
Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical
Storm Nadine, and the tropical wave along 51W.

Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic west of 73W
due to T.S. Michael's rainband. To the east, a 1018 mb high is
centered near 32N659W. Another 1019 mb high is over the Canary
Islands near 27N17W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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