[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 07/1500 UTC is near 36.6N
51.4W. Leslie is moving ESE, or 115 degrees, at 9 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present in the NE
semicircle within 120 nm. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

The center of Tropical Depression Fourteen at 07/1500 UTC is near
19.2N 86.9W. The depression is lifting slowly N, or 360 degrees,
at 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speed is 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea N of 15N and W of 80W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is observed within 120 nm of 19.5N85W
and within 90 nm of 16.5N87W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen elsewhere from 16N to 22N between 81W
and 88W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis from 03N22W to
14N21W, moving W between 10 and 15 kt. This wave is well defined
in initial model diagnostics at 700 mb. TPW satellite imagery
indicates this wave is embedded in a region of deep moisture.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from
05N to 11N between 18W and 26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis from 04N38W to
18N39W, moving W around 10 kt. This wave is well defined in
initial model diagnostics at 700 mb. TPW satellite imagery
indicates this wave is embedded in a region of deep moisture.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place
from 09N to 15N between 34W and 42W.

A tropical wave entering eastern part of the Caribbean has an
axis from 07N62W to 19N62W, moving W around 20 kt. This wave is
poorly defined in initial model diagnostics at 700 mb. TPW
satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in a region of
deep moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is present from 09N to 13N between 59W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Guinea on the coast of Africa
near 10N14W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 11N38W to 09N50W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located from
09N to 13N between 43W and 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is centered just off the
coast of Louisiana near 28N91W. Upper level divergence is
enhancing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over
the SE Gulf.

Tropical Depression Fourteen near 19.2N 86.9W 1004 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving N at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
This system will be a significant weather maker for the eastern
Gulf Mon through Thu. Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 20.0N 86.5W this evening, move to 21.5N 86.5W Mon morning,
23.2N 86.8W Mon evening, 24.9N 87.2W Tue morning, and strengthen
to a hurricane near 28.7N 86.5W Wed morning. Fourteen will weaken
to a tropical storm while moving inland near 33.0N 82.5W early
Thu, then become extratropical as it moves to near 37.8N 73.0W
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered over the NW corner of
the basin near 19.2N 86.9W at 07/1500 UTC. This system will move
through the Straits of Yucatan Mon and allow winds and seas over
the NW Caribbean to decrease Tue.

A broad ridge over the remainder of the basin is suppressing
convection away from the depression.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low is centered E of the Bahamas is near 25N69W.
Divergent upper-level winds on the SE side of this system are
triggering scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over
a broad area which includes the northern Caribbean as well as the
Greater and Lesser Antilles. This area stretches from 15N to 25N
between 57W and 71W.

Weak surface ridging currently extending from New England to near
Bermuda to near 27N50W to beyond 32N40W will remain in place the
next few days. However, the surface pressure gradient between
this trough and Tropical Depression Fourteen will support fresh
to strong winds N of the Bahamas Mon night through Tue night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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