[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 07/0900 UTC is near 37.2N
52.0W. Leslie is moving E, or 095 degrees, 10 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present in
the NE quadrant within 120 nm. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE
are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

The center of newly formed Tropical Depression Fourteen at
07/0900 UTC is near 18.6N 86.9W. The depression is moving NNW, or
340 degrees, 03 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 30 knots with gusts
to 40 knots. Broad large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 80W westward.
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from
16N to 20N between 84W and 87W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen elsewhere from 15N to 21N between 82W
and 87W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis from 03N20W to
15N20W, moving W between 10 and 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery
indicates this wave is embedded in a region of deep moisture.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within
an area bounded by 10N18W to 04N18W to 07N28W to 10N18W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis from 04N37W to
18N37W, moving W around 10 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates
this wave is embedded in a region of deep moisture. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 07N
to 09N between 36W and 38W and from 11N to 15N between 35W and
38W are from 10N to 16N between 30W and 40W.

A tropical wave entering eastern part of the Caribbean has an
axis from 05N61W to 18N61W, moving W around 20 kt. TPW satellite
imagery indicates this wave is embedded in a region of deep
moisture. Despite this, there is no significant convection
currently associated with this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Guinea on the coast of Africa
near 10N14W to 05N25W to 09N35W. The ITCZ continues from 11N38W to
09N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
located from 06N to 09N between 22W and 27W and from 09N to 12N
between 42W and 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is centered just off
the coast of Louisiana near 28N91W. Upper level divergence is
enhancing scattered moderare and isolated strong convection over
the SE Gulf.

Tropical Depression Fourteen near 18.6N 86.9W 1004 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving NNW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
This system will be a significant weather maker for the eastern
Gulf Mon through Thu. Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 19.4N 86.7W this afternoon, move to 20.8N 86.4W Mon morning,
22.3N 86.6W Mon afternoon, 23.9N 87.1W Tue morning, and
strengthen to a hurricane near 27.6N 87.3W Wed morning. Fourteen
will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 32.0N
84.0W early Thu, then continue to near 37.0N 76.0W Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered in the NW corner of the
basin near 18.6N 86.9W at 07/0900 UTC. This system will move
through the Straits of Yucatan Mon and allow winds and seas over
the NW Caribbean to decrease Tue.

An E-to-W/NE-to-SW oriented ridge covers most of the rest of the
area, and is suppression convection away from the depression.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N70W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow is within 300 nm of the center in the S
quadrant, and within 240 nm of the center elsewhere. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 480
nm to 660 nm of the upper level center position in the SE
quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere within 480 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 31N24W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 30N to 32N
between 26W and 28W.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire
period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola
on Sunday night, and it will drift west-northwest across the
Bahamas through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient
between this trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong
winds to the northeast of the northern Bahamas.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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