[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Michael at 08/0000 UTC is near 19.9N
85.4W, or about 170 km ESE of Cozumel in Mexico, or about 230 km
SSW of the western tip of Cuba. MICHAEL is moving N, or 005
degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997
mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60
knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea N of 15N and W of 80W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
and within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are elsewhere
to the west of the line that runs from SE coastal Nicaragua to the
Windward Passage. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
scattered moderate rainshowers are also in the Gulf of Mexico, to
the east of 88W. The rainfall amounts will increase with time, in
the Gulf of Mexico, as MICHAEL moves northward more and more. The
PUBLIC ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES
are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 07/2100 UTC is near 35.9N
49.9W. Leslie is moving ESE, or 115 degrees, 9 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180
nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for
LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 14N
southward. This wave is well defined in initial model diagnostics
at 700 mb. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded
in a region of deep moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is found from 05N to 11N between 18W and 26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 18N
southward. This wave is well defined in initial model diagnostics
at 700 mb. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded
in a region of deep moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is taking place from 09N to 15N between 34W and
42W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 19N southward.
This wave is poorly defined in initial model diagnostics at 700
mb. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in a
region of deep moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present from 09N to 13N between 59W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Guinea on the coast of Africa
near 10N14W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 11N38W to 09N50W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located from
09N to 13N between 43W and 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S. MICHAEL is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. MICHAEL
is forecast to move northward during the next 2 to 3 days, through
the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and toward the NE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect periods of comparatively
heavier rainfall amounts along and near the path of MICHAEL during
the next 2 to 3 days.

An upper level cyclonic circulation is centered just off the
coast of Louisiana near 28N91W. Upper level divergence is
enhancing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over
the SE Gulf.

Tropical Storm Michael near 19.2N 85.5W 999 mb at 5 PM EDT moving
NNE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 50 kt. Michael
will move to 20.1N 85.6W Mon morning, 21.5N 85.8W Mon afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.2N 86.2W Tue morning, 25.0N
86.7W Tue afternoon, and 29.2N 85.7W Wed afternoon. Michael will
weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 33.7N 80.4W
Thu afternoon Michael will weaken to a tropical storm while moving
inland over near 33.7N 80.4W Thu afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Michael near 19.2N 85.5W 999 mb at 5 PM EDT moving
NNE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 50 kt. Michael
will move to 20.1N 85.6W Mon morning, 21.5N 85.8W Mon afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.2N 86.2W Tue morning, 25.0N
86.7W Tue afternoon, and 29.2N 85.7W Wed afternoon. Michael will
weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 33.7N 80.4W
Thu afternoon Michael will weaken to a tropical storm while moving
inland over near 33.7N 80.4W Thu afternoon.

A broad ridge over the remainder of the basin is suppressing
convection away from the depression.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low is centered E of the Bahamas is near 25N69W.
Divergent upper-level winds on the SE side of this system are
triggering scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over
a broad area which includes the northern Caribbean as well as the
Greater and Lesser Antilles. This area stretches from 15N to 25N
between 57W and 71W.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire
period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola
on Sunday night, and it will drift west-northwest across the
Bahamas through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient
between this trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong
winds to the northeast of the northern Bahamas. The wind speeds
from Tropical Storm Michael may clip the waters offshore N
Florida mid-week as the storm moves NE to the north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mrf/alatto/mt
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