[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ
passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to
04N23W, 02N28W, 02N40W, and 02N50W at the coast of Brazil.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
04N southward between 43W and 52W, including in parts of the
coastal plains of Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 02S to the Equator between 28W and 33W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N
southward between 10W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.
SE surface wind flow is moving across the area. A cold front is
forecast to move off the Texas coast on Saturday morning. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds are everywhere from 95W eastward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
24N to 27N between 90W and 93W near the central part of the Gulf
of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 90W eastward.

A broad surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
passing through the Deep South of Texas, through the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, toward western sections of
Guatemala.

Southerly winds in the western Gulf gradually will spread
eastward across the entire Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. A cold
front moving off the Texas coast on Saturday morning will stall
from Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico on Sunday morning. This
boundary will move northward as a warm front, slowly, on Sunday
evening. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast on Monday.
Surface high pressure building southward behind the front will
induce strong to near gale-force winds behind the front, with gale
force winds possible near Veracruz on Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern one-third or
more of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the western one-third or more of the Caribbean Sea. An
upper level trough passes through the Windward Passage/Hispaniola
to northern sections of Colombia.

A NE-to-SW oriented stationary front passes through the Atlantic
Ocean near 20N68W, across Hispaniola, to the southern coastal
waters of Jamaica, and to 17N80W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are from 16N northward from the
Windward Passage westward. The clouds and precipitation remain
from the frontal boundary that currently is cutting across
Hispaniola.

Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 73W eastward. 24-hour
rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at
30/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.32 in
Kingston in Jamaica, 0.13 in Guadeloupe, 0.05 in Curacao,
and 0.02 in Trinidad.

The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia, across Panama
near 09N80W, beyond the western sections of Costa Rica along 85W
from 09N to 10N, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are
possible from 11N southward between Colombia and the border of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Broken low level clouds and other
possible rainshowers are from 10N to 13N from 80W westward,
moving from the Caribbean Sea inland, into parts of Nicaragua
and possibly Costa Rica.

The current frontal boundary will dissipate and drift north
today. Fresh trade winds will persist in the south central
Caribbean Sea through early next week, with the strongest winds
mainly at night near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong E to
SE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
during the next few nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N44W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
28N50W, to 23N60W, and to 20N68W. The front continues as
stationary from 20N68W, across Hispaniola, to the southern coastal
waters of Jamaica, and to 17N80W.  and then southwestward beyond
the Windward Passage, into the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N northward
between 35W and 50W. Other rainshowers are possible to the
northwest of the line that passes through 32N27W to 23N50W, and to
the Mona Passage. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 30/1200 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...are 0.04 in Bermuda.

The current frontal boundary will weaken and stall through this
evening. Surface high pressure, that is behind the front, will
induce fresh trade winds south of 23N. The area of high pressure
will shift E through Sunday. S to SW winds in the waters north of
27N W of the high will increase, becoming fresh to strong from
Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. The combined area of
swell associated with a large area of low pressure in the central
Atlantic, and fresh trade winds in the deep tropics, will
dominate the forecast waters E of 68W through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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