[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Liberia and southern Sierra
Leone. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 05N20W to 02N30W to 02N50W at the coast of Brazil.
Isolated areas of moderate convection are seen within 270 nm
either side of the ITCZ between the west coast of Africa and the
coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At the surface, a 995 mb low is near the western Oklahoma
Panhandle while a 1022 mb high is just east of northern Florida.
As a result, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds are blowing
across much of the Gulf of Mexico at this time. Some moisture from
the SW end of the stationary front over the Caribbean is being
advected northward into the Gulf by the low to mid level wind
flow. Aloft, mid to upper level SW to W wind flow is still
advecting some moisture from the East Pacific into the Gulf. As a
result, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over
northern and eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico, mostly north
and east of a line extending from 27N96W to 25N92W to 22N87W to
22N80W. The showers extend from that line northward to the
northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the big bend of Florida.

Southerly winds over the western Gulf will gradually spread
eastward across the entire Gulf by Saturday. A cold front moving
off the Texas coast Sat morning will stall from Louisiana to near
Tampico Mexico Sun morning, then lift slowly northward as a warm
front Sun evening. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast
on Monday. High pressure building southward behind the front will
induce strong to near gale-force winds behind the front, with gale
force winds possible near Veracruz Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 20N68W,
across Hispaniola, to the southern coastal waters of Jamaica, and
to 17N80W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible near and
within 90 nm north of the front, including over Haiti and Jamaica.
Isolated to scattered showers are noted from 17N-20N between 80W-
83W. Isolated showers are possible over western Cuba and in the
Yucatan Channel. In the eastern Caribbean, isolated trade wind
showers are noted over and just south of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico, and also south of 13.5N between the Windward Islands
and the ABC Islands. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the SW Caribbean south of 10.5N between 75W-84W due to
the monsoon trough, which is currently situated over Panama.

The stationary front that passes through Hispaniola to 17N80W will
dissipate and drift north this evening. Fresh trade winds will
persist in the south-central Caribbean through early next week,
with the strongest winds mainly at night near the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected across the
Gulf of Honduras mainly at night the next few nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N43W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
27N50W to 23N60W. The front continues as stationary from 23N60W
across Hispaniola, to 17N80W in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate convection is noted north of 28N and within 120 nm either
side of a line from 32N43W to 28N48W. Isolated to scattered
showers are elsewhere north of 25N within 180 nm of line from
32N43W to 28N48W to 26N52W. Isolated showers are possible
elsewhere along and within 120 nm NW of the front from Hispaniola
to 25N.

An upper-level low is located in the vicinity of 16N35W. Upper-
level cyclonic turning associated with this feature extends from
09N-21N between 30W-44W. On the east side of the upper-level low
or trough axis, numerous showers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm of a line extending from
14N35W to 18N29W to 18N16W.

The current stationary front from 21N65W to Hispaniola will weaken
through this evening. High pressure NW of this front to the east
of Florida will induce fresh trade winds south of 23N. As the high
pressure shifts E through Sun, expect increasing southerly winds
across the waters N of 27N W of 77W on Sat, and mainly N of 28N W
of 65W on Sun. Seas generated by a large extratropical cyclone
in the central Atlantic will continue to propagate across the
eastern waters in northerly swell through the weekend. Tonight
through Saturday, seas over 12 ft will affect waters N of 26N E
of 63W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net