[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301154
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 AM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains extends from west Africa near 06N10W
to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N34W to the
coast of South America near 03N50W. Scattered showers cover the
area from the Equator to 17N between 19W-39W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed near the west coast of
Africa 180 nm south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to the ITCZ between 39W- 49W. the
west coast of Africa and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid and upper westerly flow prevails across the entire area with
broken to overcast skies. Water vapor loops and TPW loops
indicate that much of the moisture and associated mid to upper
level cloud cover over the Gulf is originating from the tropical
east Pacific. This is supporting possible scattered rainshowers
across the entire area. A 1023 mb surface high is centered over
northeast Florida near 29N80W. Scatterometer pass over the Gulf
shows fresh southerly return flow over most of the West Gulf from
the Yucatan peninsula extending to 28N and west of 88W.

The high pressure will slide eastward into the W Atlantic early
today. Southerly winds over the western Gulf will gradually
spread eastward across the entire Gulf by Saturday. A cold front
moving off the Texas coast Sat morning will stall from Louisiana
to near Tampico Mexico Sun morning, then lift slowly northward
as a warm front Sun evening. A strong cold front will reach the
Texas coast on Monday. High pressure building southward behind
the front may induce gale force winds near Veracruz Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Hispaniola to 17N78W. A surface
trough extends from 17N79W to 20N86W. Scattered showers in the
vicinity of the trough. Scattered showers are also seen in the
proximity of the stationary front. In the SW Caribbean, scattered
showers are noted near the coast of Panama south of 10N and west
of 81W, in association with the monsoon trough. The eastern and
central Caribbean are relatively quiet with little significant
shower activity noted.

The remnants of a nearly stationary front over Hispaniola and
Jamaica will lift northward into Cuba today. Fresh trade winds
will persist in the south-central Caribbean the remainder of the
week, with the strongest winds mainly at night near the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected across the
Gulf of Honduras tonight and Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N46W in the central Atlantic Ocean,
to 25N56W to Hispaniola near 19N69W and into the Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 180 nm E
of the cold front from 25N northward. From 25N-31N, scattered
showers are noted between 40W and the front. Scattered showers are
also within 150 nm either side of a line. Mid to upper level
westerly wind flow covers this area.

Over the NE part of the area, scattered showers are noted north
of a line from 25N45W to 31N35W. A cold front enters the area
near 32N16W and extends to 30N23W. A 1024 mb surface high is
centered near 28N28W.

Seas of 10 to 15 ft, mostly due to a high NW swell, will affect
the forecast area tonight mainly N of 26N between 43W-67W. On
Friday, seas of this magnitude will be confined to areas mainly N
of 27N between 36W-64W.

A cold front extending from 22N65W to Hispaniola will weaken and
stall this evening. High pressure behind the front will induce
fresh trade winds south of 23N. S to SW winds over waters north of
27N will increase tonight and Saturday ahead of the next cold
front. The combined area of swell associated with a large low in
the central Atlantic and fresh trade winds in the deep tropics
will dominate the forecast waters through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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