[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains extends from west Africa near 07N12W to
06N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N30W to the coast
of South America near 02N50W. Scattered showers cover the area
from the Equator to 18N between the west coast of Africa and 52W.
Scattered moderate convection are also noted south of the monsoon
trough near the W coast of Africa from 02N-07N between the 10W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid and upper westerly flow spans the entire area. Water vapor
loops and TPW loops indicate that much of the moisture and
associated mid to upper level cloud cover over the Gulf is
originating from the tropical east Pacific. This is supporting
possible scattered rainshowers across the entire area. An area of
more concentrated moderate convection is shown offshore
Brownsville Texas Doppler Radar from 25N-26N extending north to
the Louisiana coast to 29N east of 92W. A 1023 mb surface high is
centered over northeast Florida near 29N81W. Fresh to strong
southerly return flow is over most of the West Gulf.

The high pressure will slide eastward into the W Atlantic
tonight. Fresh to strong southwesterly return flow over the W
Gulf will spread across the entire Gulf by Fri. The next cold
front will move off the Texas coast Sat morning, then stall from
SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Sun morning before lifting
slowly N and just inland over TX Sun evening. A stronger cold
front will enter the NW Gulf on Monday, and reach from northern
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico on Tuesday. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the second front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Hispaniola to 19N79W transitioning
to a dissipating front at that point to 19N86W. Scattered showers
are noted 80 nm north of the boundary. In the SW Caribbean,
scattered showers are noted near the coast of Panama south of 10N
and west of 78W, in association with the monsoon trough. The
eastern and central Caribbean are relatively quiet with little
significant shower activity noted.

The stationary front will weaken tonight and the remnants of the
front will lift N across the NW Caribbean through late Fri. Fresh
to locally strong nocturnal trades will persist across the S
central Caribbean the remainder of the week, with the strongest
winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Long period NW swell
will reach the NE Caribbean Passages tonight and spread SE to the
waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N47W in the central Atlantic Ocean,
to 23N60W to Hispaniola near 19N70W and into the Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 180 nm E
of the cold front from 25N northward. From 25N-31N, scattered
showers are noted between 40W and the front. Scattered showers are
also possible within 150 nm either side of a line. Mid to upper
level westerly wind flow covers this area.

Over the NE part of the area, scattered showers are noted north
of a line from 25N45W to 31N35W. A cold front enters the area
near 32N16W and extends to 30N23W. A 1024 mb surface high is
centered near 28N28W.

Seas of 10 to 16 ft, mostly due to a high NW swell, will affect
the forecast area tonight mainly N of 26N between 43W-67W. On
Friday, seas of this magnitude will be confined to areas mainly N
of 27N between 36W-64W.

A cold front passes through 31N47W in the central Atlantic Ocean,
will move slowly SE, and stall from 21N65W to the Windward passage
by Fri evening. High pres behind the front will slide ENE into
the W Atlc by early Fri, then move slowly E along 30N through the
weekend. This will induce fresh easterly trades just N of
Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage through
the weekend. By Sat, expect increasing winds and building seas
across the waters E of northern and central Florida as the
pressure gradient tightens there. Long period northerly swell will
dominate the forecast waters through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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