[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 PM EST Thu Nov 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ
passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N13W, to
04N21W to 05N25W to 03N34W, then continues west of a surface
trough from 03N38W to 03N51W at the coast of Brazil. A surface
trough is analyzed from 06N35W to 00N37W. Scattered showers cover
the area from the Equator to 10N between the west coast of Africa
and 53W. Scattered showers are also noted from 10N-17N between
the W coast of Africa and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. Water vapor
loops and TPW loops indicate that much of the moisture and
associated mid to upper level cloud cover over the Gulf is
originating from the tropical east Pacific. This is supporting
possible scattered rainshowers across the entire area. One area
of more concentrated moderate convection is shown by Brownsville
Texas Doppler Radar from 24N-27N, east of 97W. A surface trough
is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, parallel to the coast
of Mexico from 24N97W to 19N96W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm
on either side of the trough. A 1023 mb surface high is centered
over northern Florida.

High pressure will slide eastward across N Florida this evening
and into the W Atlantic tonight. Southwesterly return flow over
the W Gulf will spread across the entire Gulf by Fri. The next
cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat morning, then stall
from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Sun morning before
lifting slowly N and just inland over TX Sun evening. A stronger
cold front will move SE into the W Gulf Mon through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented cold front passes through the Windward
Passage, becoming stationary between SE Cuba and Jamaica near
19N76W. The stationary front continues to the E coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W. Isolated showers are possible in
the NW Caribbean west of 81W, near and north of the front.
Isolated showers are also possible in the Gulf of Honduras, south
of the front, west of 83W. In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 10.5N and west of
77W, in association with the monsoon trough. The eastern and
central Caribbean are relatively quiet with little significant
shower activity noted.

The frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean will weaken later today
and the remnants of the front will lift N across the NW Caribbean
tonight through late Fri. Fresh to locally strong nocturnal
trades will persist across the S central Caribbean the remainder
of the week, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt near the coast
of Colombia. Long period NW swell will reach the NE Caribbean
passages this evening and spread SE to the waters E of the
Leeward Islands tonight through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W in the central Atlantic Ocean,
to 28N54W to 22N66W to NW Haiti near 20N73W and into the Caribbean
Sea. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 150
nm E of the cold front from 29N northward. From 25N-29N, scattered
showers are noted between 40W and the front. Scattered showers are
also possible within 150 nm either side of a line from 32N51W to
29N62W to 27N73W to the middle Florida Keys. Mid to upper level
westerly wind flow covers this area.

Over the NE part of the area, scattered showers are noted north
of a line from 25N45W to 31N35W to 32N23W. A cold front enters the
area near 32N21W and extends to 31N24W. A 1022 mb surface high is
centered near 28N27W.

Seas of 10 to 16 ft, mostly due to a high NW swell, will affect
the forecast area tonight mainly N of 26N between 43W-67W. On
Friday, seas of this magnitude will be confined to areas mainly N
of 27N between 36W-64W.

The cold front that extends from 32N48W to the Windward Passage will
move slowly SE, and stall from 21N65W to the Windward passage Fri
evening. High pressure behind the front will slide ENE into the W
Atlantic by early Fri, then move slowly E along 30N through the
weekend. This will induce fresh easterly trades S of 23N and
increase S to SW flow over the waters N of 27N ahead of the next
cold front. Long period N to NW swell will dominate the forecast
waters this evening through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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