[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1248 PM EST Thu Nov 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ
passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to
04N21W, 05N25W, 03N34W, and 03N51W at the coast of Brazil.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. The upper level
wind flow is pushing broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers across the entire area also.

A surface ridge passes through the S Georgia, across the Florida
Big Bend, to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along
the coast of Mexico from 25N southward, to the northern part of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the trough.

Surface high pressure will slide eastward across N Florida today
and into the W Atlantic Ocean tonight. Southerly return flow in
the W Gulf of Mexico will spread across the entire Gulf by Friday.
The next cold front will move off the Texas coast on Saturday
morning, and then stall from SE LA to the N of Tampico Mexico on
Sunday morning, before moving slowly N and just inland across TX
on Sunday evening. A stronger cold front will move SE, into the W
Gulf of Mexico, from Monday through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern one-third or
more of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the western one-third or more of the Caribbean Sea. An
upper level trough passes through the Windward Passage/Hispaniola
to northern sections of Colombia.

A NE-to-SW oriented cold front passes through the Windward
Passage, becoming stationary between SE Cuba and Jamaica. The
stationary front continues to 18N84W. A warm front continues from
18N84W to the SE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the south
central coast of Hispaniola to the east central coast of
Nicaragua.

Rainshowers are possible to the E/SE of the line that runs from
20N63W to 14N70W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 29/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are
0.42 in Guadeloupe, and 0.19 in Curacao.

The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia, across Panama
at 80W along 08N/09N, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 11N southward between 78W and 80W.

The current frontal boundary, that runs from the Windward Passage
to just N of Belize, will weaken today. The remnants of the front
will move N across the NW Caribbean from tonight through late
Friday. Fresh to locally strong nocturnal trade winds will
persist across the S central Caribbean Sea for the remainder of
the week, with the strongest winds of 25 knots to 30 knots near
the coast of Colombia. Long period NW swell will reach the NE
Caribbean Sea Passages this evening, and spread SE to the waters
that are to the E of the Leeward Islands from tonight through
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
25N60W, and to 21N70W, and then southwestward beyond the Windward
Passage, into the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N northward between 44W and
54W. Other rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line
that passes through 32N23W to 23N40W, and to 70W along the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic.

The current cold front will move slowly SE, and stall from 21N65W
to the Windward Passage on Friday evening. Surface high pressure,
that is behind the front, will slide ENE into the W Atlantic Ocean
by early Friday, and then move slowly E along 30N through the
weekend. This will induce fresh E trade winds S of 23N, and
increase S to SW flow over the waters that are to the N of 27N
ahead of next cold front. Long period N to NW swell will dominate
the forecast waters this afternoon through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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