[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290628
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EST Thu Nov 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING for the Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to eastern Cuba near 20N74W and
into the northwest Caribbean 18N82W. Scattered showers are noted
along the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted 180 nm to
the east of the front north of 26N between 50W-60W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds behind the front
mainly north of 29N between 60W-72W. Seas in this area are ranging
between 12-18 ft. Expect for these conditions to subside tonight
by 06Z. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ
passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the vicinity of the ITCZ between 20W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates a tongue of cold and dry air over
Florida and the Straits of Florida, also reaching west- central
Cuba. A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1022
mb high centered near 31N88W. Scatterometer depicts a moderate to
fresh anticyclonic flow prevailing across the basin. Upper level
diffluence is noted spread across the western Gulf of Mexico associated
with trough over the west coast

The 1022 mb surface high pressure centered over the Florida
Panhandle will move eastward across northern Florida on Thu. As
the high pressure slides eastward, southerly return flow already
in place over the western Gulf will spread across entire Gulf by
Fri. The pressure gradient will tighten across the region between
the high pressure and lower pressure over Texas, resulting in
fresh to strong southerly winds first across the eastern half of
the Gulf late Thu through Fri morning, and across the eastern half
of the Gulf Fri afternoon and Fri night. The next cold front will
move off the Texas coast Sat morning and meander across the NW
Gulf through Sun before reinforcing high pressure forces the front
SE Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across eastern Cuba near 20N75W then continues
through 18N85W. The front becomes stationary from that point to
18N87W. Satellite imagery indicates a tongue of cold and dry air
over Florida and the Straits of Florida, also reaching west-
central Cuba. When this pattern is observed, a significant
decrease in temperature is likely across Havana-Matanzas Plains,
with low temperatures dropping to or below 50 deg F.

Drier air prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate trades across most of the basin except
south of 15N between 72W-78W, where fresh winds are noted.

The front will remains nearly stationary along 19N-20N on Thu
while gradually weakening. The remnants of the front will then
lift N across the NW Caribbean Thu night through late Fri. Fresh
to locally strong nocturnal trades will persist across the south-
central Caribbean the remainder of the week, with the strongest
winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Long period NW swell
will reach the waters E of the Leeward Islands on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for information about the front over
the west Atlantic and the Gale Warning in effect for the area.

To the east, a surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary,
extends from 28N33W to 25N42W. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin.

A cold front extending from 31N53W to eastern Cuba near 20N74W
will move SE, and reach from 25N60W to eastern Cuba by Thu
morning, then from 24N60W to eastern Cuba on Thu night. High pres
behind the front will slide ENE into the W Atlc early Fri as the
front becomes nearly stationary from 22N60W to the Windward
passage and gradually dissipates through Sat. Long period N to NW
swell will dominate the forecast waters through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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