[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EST Thu Nov 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 06N11W to 05N15W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to the south of French Guiana
near 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity
of the ITCZ between 19W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates a tongue of cold and dry air over
Florida and the Straits of Florida, also reaching west-central
Cuba. A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1022
mb high centered near 30N85W. Scatterometer depicts a moderate to
fresh anticyclonic flow prevailing across the basin. Upper level
diffluence is noted spread across the western Gulf of Mexico
associated with upper trough moving across Mexico. Scattered
showers are noted north of 20N between 97W-89W.

A 1022 mb high centered over the Florida Panhandle will slide
eastward across northern Florida today and into the W Atlc
tonight. As this occurs, southerly return flow already in place
over the western Gulf will spread across entire Gulf by Fri. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the region between the high
pressure and lower pressure over Texas, resulting in fresh to
strong southerly winds first across the W half of the Gulf late
Thu through Fri morning, and across the E half of the Gulf Fri
afternoon and Fri night. The next cold front will move off the
Texas coast Sat morning and stall from SE LA to central Mexican
coast Sun morning before lifting slowly N and just inland across
TX Sun evening. The next cold front will move SE into the W Gulf
Mon through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across eastern Cuba near 19N76W then
continues through 19N82W. The front becomes stationary from that
point to the coast of Belize near 17N87W. Scattered showers are
in the vicinity of the stationary front. Satellite imagery
indicates a tongue of cold and dry air over Florida and the
Straits of Florida, also reaching west- central Cuba. When this
pattern is observed, a significant decrease in temperature is
likely across Havana- Matanzas Plains, with low temperatures
dropping to or below 50 deg F.

Drier air prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate trades across most of the basin except
south of 22N between 85W-80W, where fresh winds are noted.

A cold front will meander along 19N-20N today while gradually
weakening. The remnants of the front will then lift N across the
NW Caribbean tonight through late Fri. Fresh to locally strong
nocturnal trades will persist across the south-central Caribbean
the remainder of the week, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt
near the coast of Colombia. Long period NW swell will reach the NE
Caribbean Passages this evening and spread SE to the waters E of
the Leeward Islands tonight through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to the end of Cuba near 20N74W.
Scattered showers are present north of 24N between 45W-56W. A
surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from
28N30W to 25N38W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder
of the basin.

The cold front will move slowly SE, and stall from 21N65W to
Windward passage Fri evening. High pres behind the front will
slide ENE into the W Atlc early Fri and move slowly E along 30N
through the weekend. This will induce fresh E trades S of 23N and
increasing S to SW flow across W and NW portions ahead of next
cold front. Long period N to NW swell will dominate the forecast
waters this afternoon through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
TORRES
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