[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Wed Nov 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING for the Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 26N68W to beyond 21N77W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front. Latest scatterometer
data depicts gale-force winds ahead and behind the front mainly
north of 29N between 61W-72W. Seas in this area are ranging
between 13-18 ft. Expect for these conditions to subside tonight
by 00Z. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ
passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to
05N28W, then resumes from 02N33W to 00N41W then from 00N4W to
00N48W. A pair of surface troughs were analyzed along 30W and
42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the
ITCZ between 20W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates a tongue of cold and dry air
over Florida and the Straits of Florida, also reaching west-
central Cuba. A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored
by a 1023 mb high centered near 31N88W. Scatterometer depicts a
moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevailing across the basin.

The surface high will continue drifting eastward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, maintaining moderate to
fresh northerly winds across the eastern half of the Gulf.
Southerly return flow will develop across the northwest Gulf, and
gradually spread across the entire Gulf of Mexico by Friday. The
next cold front will move off the Texas coast on Saturday morning,
and meander across the northwest Gulf through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across Cuba near 21N78W then continues
through 19N82W. The front becomes stationary from that point to
17N89W. Satellite imagery indicates a tongue of cold and dry air
over Florida and the Straits of Florida, also reaching west-
central Cuba. When this pattern is observed, a significant
decrease in temperature is likely across Havana-Matanzas Plains,
with low temperatures  dropping to or below 50 deg F.

To the south of the front, surface trough is analyzed from 16N82W
to 16N88W. Scattered showers are noted along the front and
trough. Drier air prevails across the remainder of the basin.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across most of the
basin except south of 15N between 72W-78W, where fresh winds are
noted.

The cold front gradually will become stationary, from E Cuba to
central Belize late tonight. The remnants of the front will move
north across the northwest Caribbean Sea from Thursday night
through late Friday. Fresh to locally strong nocturnal trade winds
along the north coast of Colombia will pulse each night through
the remainder of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for information about the front over
the west Atlantic and the Gale Warning in effect for the area.

To the south, a surface trough extends along 58W from 11N-19N with
scattered showers. To the east, another surface trough, remnants
of a frontal boundary, extends from 31N27W to 23N48W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The cold front will continue moving east and reach from 26N65W to
eastern Cuba by this evening, then from 23N65W to north Windward
Passage on Thursday evening. Surface high pressure that is to
the west of the front will slide east into the W Atlantic early
on Friday as the front becomes nearly stationary from 21N65W to
the Windward Passage and gradually dissipates through Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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