[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters Southeast of Bermuda...

A 992 mb surface low near 33N61W has a warm front extending east
from it to 29N41W. A cold front extends south from the low to
26N67W. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed gale-force
winds north of 29N between 61W-64W. Seas are expected to reach
11 ft in this area. Gale-force winds are forecast until 26/1200
UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...Gale Warning in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N93W
to 27N97W. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend region
to W Bay of Campeche Mon morning, from the Florida Keys to E Bay
of Campeche Tue morning, then move SE of the area Tue evening or
night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will spread south
behind the cold front this evening, increasing to minimal gale
force south of 25N west of 94W tonight, and spread south across
the far southwest waters near Veracruz Monday morning through
evening. Seas will build to 12 ft in the southwest Gulf Monday.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 06N16W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to South America near 00N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 18W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N93W
to 27N97W with scattered showers along the boundary. To the east,
another cold front extends across the Florida Peninsula along 26N
reaching the eastern Gulf waters near 84W, then it transitions to
a warm front from that point to 30N87W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the basin at this time.

Expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze over the western half
of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal system over the eastern Gulf
will lift northward tonight. The cold front over the northwest
Gulf will continue moving southeast across the basin enhancing
winds/seas. See the section above for more information about this
front and the Gale Warning currently in effect.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 21N62W to the
Virgin Islands near 18N65W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of
the trough. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant convection
due to strong subsidence in the region.

Seas to 8 ft seas are forecast across the tropical
waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Tue. Locally strong
nocturnal trades are forecast along the north coast of Colombia
through the week. Moderate trades are expected north of 17N,
while fresh trades are generally forecast south of 17N through
the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on the Gale Warning in effect for the west/central
Atlantic.

A 1013 mb low is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N77W. A
cold front extends southwest from the low to 27N80W. A warm front
extends east from the low to 29N74W. To the east, a cold front
over the west/central Atlantic extending from 31N60W to 28N62W to
26N68W. The Gale Warning is associated to this front. Scattered
moderate convection is east of the cold front north of 21N
between 50W-60W. To the east, another frontal system dips into
the east/central, analyzed as a warm front from 31N48W to 29N41W
then as a stationary front from that point to 31N28W. A 1024 mb
high is centered over the east Atlantic near 27N31W.

Expect all the fronts to move east over the next 48 hours. A new
cold front to move off the southeast United States coast on
Monday evening. This front will move southeast and extend from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas Wednesday morning, and weaken from
24N65W to eastern Cuba by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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