[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon.
The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend region to W Bay of
Campeche Mon morning, from the Florida Keys to E Bay of Campeche
Tue morning, then move SE of the area Tue evening or night. Strong
to near gale force northerly winds will spread S behind the cold
front this evening, increasing to minimal gale force S of 25N
west of 94W tonight, and spread S across the far SW waters near
Veracruz Mon morning through evening. Seas will build to 12 ft in
the SW Gulf Monday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
information.

...GALE WARNING for Atlantic waters Southeast of Bermuda...

A 996 mb surface low near 32N64W has a warm front extending east
to 31N53W. A cold front extends S from the low to 31N63W to
27N70W. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed gale force
winds. Gale force SW winds are N of 30N between 61.5W and 63.5W.
Seas are to 11 ft. Gale force winds are forecast until 26/1200
UTC. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 06N17W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N30W to South America near
00N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-12N between
16W-24W. Similar convection is from 02N-07N between 24W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 25/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from S Florida near 27N80W
to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N83W to 26N86W. A warm front
continues to SE Louisiana near 30N89W. A cold front and prefrontal
trough is presently over central Texas moving towards the Gulf
coast. Most of the Gulf presently has 15 kt southerly surface
winds. Little to no significant shower activity is noted.

Expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze this morning over the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary over the
Gulf will lift northward today. The next cold front will move off
the Texas coast late this afternoon then move SE of the area Tue
evening or night. See the section above for more information about
this front and the Gale Warning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 21N62W to the
Leeward Islands near 17N64W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of
the trough. More scattered showers are over the Windward Islands
from 10N-14N between 61W-66W. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered
moderate convection is over E Panama and N Colombia, S of 10N and
E of 79W. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant convection
due to strong subsidence in the region.

Seas to 8 ft seas are forecast across the tropical
waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Tue. Locally strong
nocturnal trades are forecast along the N coast of Colombia
through the remainder of the week. Otherwise moderate trades are
expected N of 17N, while fresh trades are generally forecast S of
17N through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic.

A 1013 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N78W. A cold
front extends SW from the low to S Florida near 27N80W. A warm
front extends E from the low to 29N75W. Scattered showers are N of
26N between 74W-79W. A cold front over the central Atlantic
extends from 31N63W to 28N66W to 27N69W. The ongoing Gale is
associated with this front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is E of the cold front N of 23N between 52W-59W.
Another cold front dips into the E Atlantic near 31N30W to 28N43W
to to 31N51W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this front. A
1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N31W.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough axis is along 60W, N of
25N. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is enhancing
convection. Elsewhere, another upper level trough is centered over
the Cape Verde Islands with upper level diffluence and scattered
showers E of the Islands.

Expect all three fronts to move E over the next 48 hours. A new
cold front to move off the SE United States coast Mon evening.
This cold front will move SE and extend from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas Wed morning, and weaken from 24N65W to eastern
Cuba Thu morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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