[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters Southeast of Bermuda...

A 992 mb surface low near 34N56W has a warm front extending east
from it to 30N33W. A cold front extends south from the low to
30N55W. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed gale-force winds
north of 29N between 61W-64W. Seas are expected to reach 15 ft in
this area. Gale-force winds are forecast until 26/1200 UTC.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...Gale Warning in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 29N92W
to 23N97W. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend region
to W Bay of Campeche Mon morning, from the Florida Keys to E Bay
of Campeche Tue morning, then move SE of the area Tue evening or
night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will spread south
behind the cold front this evening, increasing to minimal gale
force south of 25N west of 94W tonight, and spread south across
the far southwest waters near Veracruz Monday morning through
evening. Seas will build to 12 ft in the southwest Gulf Monday.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 07N12W to 05N17W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to South America near 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 16W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 29N92W
to 23N97W with scattered showers along the boundary. To the east,
a stationary front extends across the Florida Peninsula along 30N
reaching the eastern Gulf waters near 82W, then crosses the
peninsula into the western Atlantic to a 1013 mb low pressure
near 29N76W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin at
this time. Scattered showers are present 180 nm southwest of this
boundary near 28N between 87W-88W.

Expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze over the western half
of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal system over the eastern Gulf
will lift northward tonight. The cold front over the northwest
Gulf will continue moving southeast across the basin enhancing
winds/seas. See the section above for more information about this
front and the Gale Warning currently in effect.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 29N52W to the
Virgin Islands near 20N62W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of
the trough. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant
convection due to strong subsidence in the region.

Seas to 8 ft seas are forecast across the tropical waters E of
the Lesser Antilles through Tue. Locally strong nocturnal trades
are forecast along the north coast of Colombia through the week.
Moderate trades are expected north of 17N, while fresh trades are
generally forecast south of 17N through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the west/central Atlantic.

A 1013 mb low is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N76W. A
stationary front extends southwest from the low to 26N80W. To the
east, a cold front over the west/central Atlantic extending from
30N40W to 30N32W. Then, the warm front transitions to a stationary
front from that point to 30N27W and then continues as a cold front
near 30N27W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the cold
front north of 21N between 44W-52W. A 1024 mb high is centered
over the east Atlantic near 27N28W.

Expect all the fronts to move east over the next 48 hours. A new
cold front to move off the southeast United States coast on
Monday evening. This front will move southeast and extend from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas Wednesday morning, and weaken from
24N65W to eastern Cuba by Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net