[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 PM EST Fri Nov 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends WSW from 32N50W to 27N61W, then continues as
a stationary front to the Straits of Florida. A weakening frontal
boundary curves WSW from 31N60W to 28N66W. These features support
a large area of cloudiness as well as scattered moderate
convection north of 23N between 50W-72W. A scatterometer pass from
this afternoon depicted gale-force winds north of 27N between
72W-77W. These conditions are expected to continue through this
evening. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of the monsoon trough over Africa is located near
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N15W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida to N of
the western tip of Cuba near 24N84W. To the northwest, a 1011 mb
surface low is centered near 28N96W, with a cold front extending
from the low to 24N96W and a warm front from the low to 24N90W.
Patchy rain is observed over the northern Gulf waters mainly north
of 27N. The low will begin heading E in response to a mid to
upper-level trough moving E from Oklahoma and Texas. The low
will drag the attendant frontal boundaries E with it to beyond the
NE Gulf during the weekend. A stronger cold front will move SE
off the Texas coast on Sunday afternoon. The front will reach from
the Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday
morning, then stall across the far SE waters on Tuesday. Minimal
gale-force winds are forecast across the far W central waters,
and along the Mexican coast near Veracruz on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface trough extends from the Atlantic basin across the
Windward Passage. This feature has isolated showers associated
with it. Otherwise, broad upper-level ridging is maintaining
relatively dry conditions over the basin as the convection in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough over Panama and Costa Rica is being
inhibited by the subsident environment.

Atlantic surface high pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean near 28N30W ridges to north of Puerto Rico near 22N67W. The
high will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across
the region through Sunday. New high pressure building to the N of
the basin will reintroduce strong nocturnal trade winds along the
NW coast of Colombia on Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
relating to the evolution of the features associated with the
gale-force winds currently occurring to the E of Florida. A
surface trough extends NE from the Windward Passage to near
25N66W. All the significant convection associated with this
trough is confined to the vicinity of the stationary front that
extends ENE from the Bahamas. To the east, a surface trough
is noted from 12N55W to 18N54W with isolated showers associated
with it. Elsewhere, broad high pressure centered WSW of the
Canary Islands near 28N31W extends across the area and will
prevail through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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