[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1201 PM EST Fri Nov 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends WSW from 32N50W to 28N60W, then continues as
a nearly stationary front to the Straits of Florida. A weakening
frontal boundary curves WSW from 32N57W to 28N77W. The features
support a large area of cloudiness as well as scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection to the N of a line from 32N46W to
23N68W to 25N77W to 31N81W. The weakening boundary is expected to
dissipate by tonight. A surface low will develop near the
northwest Bahamas along the front by Saturday in response to a
strong impulse at mid to upper levels arriving from the W. Expect
gale force winds to affect the waters N of 28N between 70W and 80W
until night as the pressure gradient N of the southern front
remains in place. Sea heights will range between 10 feet and 15
feet in the area affected by gales. The gale force winds will wind
down this evening as low pres begins to develop along the front
near 70W. This non- tropical, gale force low has a low chance of
acquiring subtropical characteristics and becoming a subtropical
cyclone by the time it passes near or over Bermuda on Sunday or
Monday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of the monsoon trough over Africa is located near
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W. The ITCZ continues from
08N13W to 02N24W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line
from 05N13W to 04N25W to 01N34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida to N of
the western tip of Cuba near 23N84W. The front resumes N of the
Yucatan Peninsula near 23N87W and continues through 1011 mb low
pres centered near 27N97W to 23N94W to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
near 18N94W. Extensive low clouds and patchy rain are observed to
the W of the front along the coast of Mexico and northward from
the front to all of the northern Gulf Coast W of Apalachicola
Florida. The low over the western gulf will begin heading E in
response to a mid to upper-level trough moving E from Oklahoma and
Texas. The low pressure center will drag the attendant frontal
boundaries E with it to beyond the NE Gulf by Sun morning. A
stronger cold front will move SE off the Texas coast on Sunday
afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the
western Bay of Campeche on Monday morning, then stall across the
far SE waters on Tuesday. Minimal GALE-FORCE winds are forecast
across the far W central waters, and along the Mexican coast near
Veracruz, on Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface trough passes over the N central sections of the
Caribbean Sea from 14N77W to the Windward Passage. This feature
only has isolated showers associated with it. Otherwise, broad
upper-level ridging is maintaining relatively dry conditions over
the basin as the convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough
over Panama and Costa Rica is being inhibited by the subsident
environment.

Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure centered over the eastern
Atlantic Ocean near 28N31W ridges to N of Puerto Rico near 22N67W.
The high will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds
across the region through Sun. New high pressure building to the N
of the basin will reintroduce strong nocturnal trade winds along
the NW coast of Colombia on Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the special features section for details relating
to the evolution of features associated with the gale force winds
currently occurring to the E of Florida. A weak surface trough
extends NE from the Windward Passage to near 26N64W. All the
significant convection associated with this trough is confined to
the vicinity of the frontal boundary extending ENE from the
Bahamas. A surface trough curving N from 12N54W to 18N52W only has
isolated showers associated with it. Otherwise, broad high
pressure centered WSW of the Canary Islands near 28N31W over the
Atlc between the Windward Islands and 35W through Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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