[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EST Fri Nov 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 06-hour forecast, for sunrise on Friday morning, from the
23/0600 UTC forecast, consists of: a cold front from 31N56W to
26N70W, then a stationary front to 28.5N80W. Expect NE-to-E GALE-
FORCE winds N of 28N between 70W and 80W, and sea heights ranging
from 9 feet to 15 feet. The GALE-FORCE wind conditions will end
late on Friday/early on Saturday morning. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 24/0000 UTC,
consists of: the threat of a NEAR GALE or GALE in IRVING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, and
it continues to 03N23W 02N30W 01N40W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward from 40W
eastward.

One surface trough is along 47W/48W from 11N southward. This
trough was repositioned based on scatterometer wind data. Isolated
to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are from 11N southward
between 40W and 50W.

A second surface trough is along 50W/51W from 10N to 18N.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 49W and
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, into the
SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the south central Gulf,
to a west central Gulf 1016 mb low pressure center that is about
60 nm to the SE of the southernmost point of the Texas Gulf
coast. The stationary front continues to the northern coast of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broken to overcast low
level clouds and light rain/drizzle are from 86W westward.

An upper level trough is moving through the rest of the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico, and across Florida, toward the
Bahamas. The trough is spreading upper level cyclonic wind flow
across the eastern half of the Gulf.

The 1016 mb low pressure center that is about 60 nm to the SE of
the southernmost part of the Texas Gulf coast will meander this
morning, then move ENE across the northern Gulf of Mexico, from
this afternoon through late on Saturday. The low pressure center
will be dragging the frontal boundary E as a cold front, that will
reach the west Florida coast late on Saturday. A stronger cold
front will move SE off the Texas coast on Sunday afternoon. The
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of
Campeche on Monday morning, and then stall across the far SE
waters on Tuesday. Minimal GALE-FORCE winds are forecast across
the far W central waters, and along the Mexican coast near
Veracruz, from Monday into Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea,
along 73W/74W, from SW Haiti toward northern Colombia. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 20N between 70W and 76W,
encompassing Hispaniola, and from 10N to 14N between 75W and 80W

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N southward from 73W
eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
are 0.03 in Guadeloupe, and 0.03 in Curacao.

An upper level trough, with cyclonic wind flow, is moving into
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. The
cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the NW of the line
that runs from the Windward Passage to E Honduras/NE Nicaragua.
The rest of the Caribbean Sea is covered by upper level
anticyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 09N80W in
Panama, beyond 09N/10N along 84W in Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 10N southward between Colombia and Costa Rica.

Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure is centered across the
eastern Atlantic Ocean, extending W to 65W, and producing
moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the region. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds will return across the tropical waters
E of the Windward Islands, beginning on Saturday night. Strong
nocturnal trade winds will resume along the NW coast of Colombia
on Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A first frontal boundary is stationary, passing through 32N56W to
29N60W to 26N70W. The front becomes stationary, from 25N71W,
across the Bahamas near Andros Island, and through the Straits of
Florida, into the SE Gulf of Mexico. A second frontal boundary,
is to the NW of the first front. It is cold through 32N59W to
30N64W to 28N71W. The front is dissipating stationary from 28N71W
to 28N78W. A surface trough is to the SE of the first frontal
boundary. The trough is along 29N59W 24N68W and curving to
20N72W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N45W 24N60W
20N69W. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for Bermuda was
0.35, ending at 23/0000 UTC.

An upper level trough is moving away from the Madeira
Archipelago-to-Canary Islands line, toward Morocco and the Western
Sahara, and western coastal Mauritania, and becoming less evident
as it continues to 17N29W and 13N40W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 27N to 30N between Africa and 15W. Other rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 17N northward from 43W eastward.

The current cold front will sink slowly SE, to the E of 72W,
through this afternoon. A surface low pressure center, or a
tropical wave, will develop along the front near the far northern
Bahamas today, and it will drift E in order to increase the
surface pressure gradient to the N of the front. This will produce
GALE-FORCE wind conditions, and high seas between 72W and 80W
through this evening, before the front moves N tonight and wind
speeds diminish. A second low pressure center will develop off the
GEORGIA coast tonight, and move NE on Saturday and Sunday, and
drag the cold front across the northern waters. A third cold front
will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Monday evening, and extend
from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas late Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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