[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Fri Nov 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 12-hour forecast, for sunrise on Friday morning, from the
23/0000 UTC forecast, consists of: a cold front from 31N55W to
26N70W, then a stationary front to a 1015 mb low pressure center
that will be near 27N78W. Expect NE-to-E GALE-FORCE winds N of
28.5N W of 75W, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet.
The GALE-FORCE wind conditions will end late on Friday/early on
Saturday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that
is listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W, and
it continues to 03N27W and 01N40W. One surface trough is along
41W/43W from 09N southward. A second surface trough is along
18N48W 15N50W 11N51W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 14W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, into the
SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the south central Gulf,
to a west central Gulf 1016 mb low pressure center that is about
90 nm to the SE of the southernmost point of the Texas Gulf coast.
The stationary front continues to the northern coast of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broken to overcast low
level clouds and light rain/drizzle are from 86W westward.

An upper level trough is moving through the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 90W eastward. The trough is spreading upper
level cyclonic wind flow across the eastern half of the Gulf.

The 1016 mb low pressure center that is about 90 nm to the SE of
the southernmost part of the Texas Gulf coast will meander through
tonight, then move N on Fri, then NE on Fri night across the
N-central Gulf dragging the boundary E as a cold front that will
reach the central Gulf waters on Saturday. A stronger cold front
will move SE off the Texas coast on Sunday. The front will reach
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche on Monday, and
then stall across the far SE waters on Tuesday. Minimal GALE-FORCE
winds are forecast across the far W central waters and along the
Mexican coast near Veracruz from Monday into Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea,
along 17N73W 15N74W 13N75W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from
14N to 20N between 70W and 76W, encompassing Hispaniola.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N southward from 70W
eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
are 0.03 in Guadeloupe, and 0.03 in Curacao.

An upper level trough, with cyclonic wind flow, is entering the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is to the NW of the line that runs
from the Windward Passage to E Honduras/NE Nicaragua. The rest of
the Caribbean Sea is covered by upper level anticyclonic wind
flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to 08N80W in
Panama, beyond 09N84W in Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
10N southward between Colombia and Costa Rica.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are forecast across the
tropical waters E of the Windwards beginning on Saturday night.
Strong nocturnal trade winds are forecast to resume along the NW
coast of Colombia on Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A first frontal boundary is cold, passing through 32N57W to
26N66W to 25N71W. The front becomes stationary, from 25N71W,
across the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida, into the
SE Gulf of Mexico. A second frontal boundary, is to the NW of the
first front. It is cold through 32N61W to 29N67W to 28N72W, and
dissipating cold from 28N72W to 28N79W. A surface trough is to the
SE of the first frontal boundary is along 28N62W 24N68W and
curving to 20N72W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 120 nm to 240 nm to the NW of the line
that passes through 32N46W 29N50W 29N54W 25N63W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere to the NW of the line that
passes through 32N40W 24N59W 20N70W. The 24-hour rainfall total
in inches for Bermuda was 0.35, ending at 23/0000 UTC.

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean that is
about 200 nm to the east of the Madeira Archipelago, across the
Canary Islands, to 20N20W, and then becoming less evident to
18N30W and 15N40W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 26N to
30N between Africa and 17W.

A low pressure center will develop near the northern Bahamas
along the current 30N65W-to-27N78W cold front, on Friday. The low
pressure center will deepen/strengthen, as it moves N on Friday
night into Saturday. GALE-FORCE wind conditions and large seas
will be developing N of the Bahamas from Friday into Friday
evening. The low pressure center will drag a cold front across the
northern waters on Saturday and Sunday. A third cold front will
move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Monday evening. The third cold
front will extend from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas late on Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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