[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 PM EST Thu Nov 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N57W to the Straits of Florida. As
of 2100 UTC, this front is now a stationary front west of 71W. A
surface low will develop near the northwest Bahamas along the
front on Friday in response to a strong impulse at mid to upper
levels approaching from the W. Expect gale force winds to spread
over the waters N of 28.5N and W of 75W Friday through Friday
night as the pressure gradient N of the front tightens. Sea
heights will range between 10 feet and 16 feet in the area
affected by gales. The gale force winds will wind down by Saturday
morning in the forecast area south of 31N, as the low lifts out
to the NE. This non-tropical, gale force low has a low chance of
acquiring subtropical characteristics and becoming a subtropical
cyclone by the time it passes near or over Bermuda on Sunday or
Monday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Sierra Leone near
8N13W and continues to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to
03N23W to 04N38W. The ITCZ continues from 04N43W to 02N49W. A
surface trough splits the ITCZ from 00N43W to 09N38W. A broad
upper-level trough extends S from 15N43W to 05N52W. An area of
upper-level diffluence SE of the upper trough is interacting with
the ITCZ and surface trough to generate numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection within an area bounded by a line from
08N28W to 00N28W to 00N38W to 05N43W to 06N34W to 08N32W to
08N28W. Elsewhere from 01S to 12N between the west coast of
Africa and 46W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
prevail.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front enters the Gulf through the Florida Straits, then
becomes stationary near 24N90W. At 2100 UTC the entire front is
analyzed as stationary. The front continues from 24N90W through a
1017 mb low pres SE of Brownsville near 25N96W to end over the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18N94W. A mid to upper-level trough
extends S over the Gulf from southern Mississippi and Alabama to
to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms are over the
Gulf of Mexico from 22N-25N between 89W-93W. Elsewhere, scattered
showers are noted over southern and eastern portions of the Gulf
of Mexico, including over Florida. Otherwise, cloudiness and
isolated showers are seen over the remainder of the Gulf south of
29N.

The low pressure center along the frontal boundary will move N on
Fri, then NE on Fri night across the N-central gulf dragging the
front E again as a cold front that will reach the central Gulf
waters on Sat. A stronger cold front will move SE off the Texas
coast on Sun, reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche on Mon, then stall across the far SE waters on Tue.
Minimal gale force winds are forecast across the far W central
waters and along the Mexican coast near Veracruz on Mon into Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed along 72/73W from 13N-17N. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough from 15N-17N. Broad mid to
upper-level ridging is maintaining benign weather elsewhere over
the basin with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers generally
prevailing.

The monsoon trough extends ENE from the eastern Pacific over
Panama through a 1008 mb low pres near 10N77W to end near 11N75W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present over
the SW Caribbean S of 12N and W of 79W and over much of Panama.

Strong nocturnal trades are forecast to resume along the NW
coast of Colombia on Sun night. Fresh to locally strong trades
are forecast across the tropical waters E of the Windward Islands
beginning on Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on the gale warning
associated with low pressure developing E of Florida on Fri and
Sat.

A cold front reaches SW from 32N57W to the Florida Straits. As
of 2100 UTC, this front is now a stationary front west of 71W. A
second cold front extends SW from 32N62W to 29N72W, dissipating to
27.5N80W. A third cold front extends from 32N74W to 31N79W. South
of the southernmost front, a surface trough extends from 28N66W to
the N coast of Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring across Florida, the Florida Straits,
and the Atlantic waters north of a line from 23N80W to 25N70W to
30N64W. A second area of showers is seen extending to 240 nm SE
of a line from 24N70W to 27.5N64W to 32N58.5W. Within this area,
scattered moderate convection is seen from 26N-29N between 60W-64W
and from 30N-32N between 52W-59W.

Relatively quiet weather prevails across the remainder of the
basin, thanks to a 1025 mb surface high centered near 31N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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