[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 PM EST Thu Nov 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends WSW from 32N56W to the Straits of Florida.
The front will stall W of 70W by Fri morning as low pres develops
along the front near 27N78W in response to a strong impulse at mid
to upper levels approaching from the W. Expect gale force winds
to spread over the waters N of 28.5N and W of 75W by Fri morning
as the pressure gradient N of the front tightens. Sea heights will
range between 10 feet and 15 feet in the area affected by gales.
The gale force winds will wind down by Saturday morning as the low
lifts out to the NE. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains almost completely confined to Africa
but a small portion of the trough pokes offshore from the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N14W. The ITCZ continues from
08N14W to 04N27W to 04N39W. The ITCZ continues from 06N43W to the
coast of South America near 02N53W. A surface trough splits the
ITCZ from 00N42W to 10N37W. A broad upper-level trough extending S
from 14N53W to 06N54W is interacting with the ITCZ and surface
trough to generate scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection within an area bounded by a line from 06N18W to 01S39W
to 03W43W to 05N33W to 10N37W to 08N18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front enters the Gulf through the Florida Straits, then
becomes stationary near 24N86W. The front continues through 1017
mb low pres SE of Brownsville near 25.5N96W to end over the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18N94W. A mid to upper-level trough
extends S over the Gulf from Louisiana to the SE Bay of Campeche.
Isolated thunderstorms are present in the vicinity of the front W
of 90W. Otherwise, cloudiness and patchy rain are found over the
Gulf W of 90W, while cloudiness and isolated showers are seen over
the remainder of the Gulf.

The low pressure center along the frontal boundary will generate
fresh to strong winds within 120 nm of the Texas coast today. The
winds and the seas will subside tonight as the low pressure center
dissipates. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast on
Sunday night. It is possible that the second cold front may induce
gale-force winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz on
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid to upper-level ridging is maintaining benign weather
over the basin with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers
generally prevailing.

The monsoon trough extends ENE from the eastern Pacific over
Panama through 1010 mb low pres over Colombia near 10N76W to end
near 09N74W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present over the SW Caribbean S of 12N and W of 79W.

Fresh to locally strong winds will continue along the coast of
Colombia through the weekend. Long period NE swell in the Atlantic
Ocean will diminish in the area E of the Lesser Antilles today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on the gale warning
associated with low pressure developing E of Florida on Fri and
Sat.

A cold front reaches SW from 32N58W to the Florida Straits. A
second cold front extends SW from 32N66W to near Cape Canaveral
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring along and up to 120 nm SE of the southernmost front N
of 28N. Otherwise, cloudiness and isolated showers are observed
along and up to 60 nm ahead of the southernmost front. This area
of cloudiness and isolated showers spreads northward from this
front over all of the waters S of 32N.

A surface trough extends NE from the SW tip of Haiti to 28N68W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are taking place
within 60 nm of the trough axis N of Haiti.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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