[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 30-hour forecast, around sunrise on Friday, from the 22/0600
UTC forecast, consists of: a cold front from 31N56W to 26N72W,
then a stationary front to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is
near 28N78W. Expect GALE-FORCE winds within 90 NM N semicircle of
the low pressure center, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to
15 feet. The GALE-FORCE wind conditions will end late on Friday/
early on Saturday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST, that is listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N19W,
to 04N30W and 04N36W. One surface trough is along 07N37W 03N39W
01N43W. A second surface trough is along 15N42W 11N45W 05N47W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
09N southward between 14W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts across the NW Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, to
24N86W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary at
24N86W, and it curves to 26N96W, and continuing to the northern
part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The front
breaks up at the northern part of the Isthmus, and it starts again
from 18N97W, toward the northwest, to 28N102W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 22N northward from
88W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the
Gulf of Mexico.

A low pressure center will develop along the current frontal
boundary today. It will generate fresh to strong winds within
120 nm of the Texas coast. The wind speeds and the sea heights
will subside tonight as the low pressure center dissipates.
A second cold front will move off the Texas coast on Sunday night.
It is possible that the second cold front may induce gale-force
winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 26N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
22N70W, to the western sections of the Dominican Republic/the
center of Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible inland in
Hispaniola from 70W westward. Some rainshowers are in the northern
coastal waters of Hispaniola.

Rainshowers are possible from 18N southward from 74W eastward.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
Large-scale and broad middle level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the area that is from 14N northward. Large-scale and broad middle
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N
southward. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner from 16N
northward from 80W westward. An inverted trough runs from central
Hispaniola southward at 700 mb. Broad NE wind flow at 700 mb
covers the rest of the western part/SW part of the Caribbean Sea.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the coastal waters/coastal plains of Nicaragua and parts of
Honduras from 11N to 16N between 80W and 85W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers have been in the coastal waters of SW Jamaica.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 06N to 22N between 46W and 68W, covering parts of
the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia and
81W on the southern side of Panama, and beyond, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 11N southward between Colombia and Costa Rica.

Fresh winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through the
weekend. Long period NE swell in the Atlantic Ocean will diminish
in the area that is to the east of the Lesser Antilles today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N57W to 28N70W, across the NW
Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 240
nm to the NW of the line that passes through 32N50W to 27N66W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere to the NW of the line
from 27N66W to 22N77W at the coast of Cuba.

A second cold front is from 200 nm to 240 nm to the northwest of
the 32N57W-to-Florida Keys front, between Bermuda and the west
coast of Florida near 29N83W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
along and to the northwest of the second cold front. The 24-hour
rainfall total in inches for Bermuda was 0.01, ending at 22/0000
UTC.

A surface trough extends from 26N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
22N70W, to the western sections of the Dominican Republic/the
center of Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible inland in
Hispaniola from 70W westward. Some rainshowers are in the northern
coastal waters of Hispaniola. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 22N to 25N between 64W and 70W, and from Hispaniola to 22N
between 70W and 73W.

A third cold front, in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, extends from a
1012 mb low pressure center that is near 33N11W, across the
eastern part of the Canary Islands, to 24N20W, to a 1015 mb low
pressure center that is near 21N32W. The cold front continues
from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 19N34W, and to 20N40W.
Rainshowers are possible from 15N to 23N from 43W eastward.

A surface trough is along 22N22W 18N28W 15N34W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 16N to 23N between 20W and 33W.

A reinforcing cold front will push into the northern waters today.
A low pressure center will form along the reinforcing front, to
the north of the Bahamas on Friday. The forecast is for GALE-
FORCE winds to develop, as the low pressure center intensifies
and tracks NE off the SE coast of the United States through
Saturday. The sea heights outside the Bahamas will build to the
range of 10 feet to 16 feet from Friday through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net